China Low Carbon Future 2 degree KJ Jiang 20151103

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1、China’sLowCarbonandEnergyTransition-PeakingCO2emissionin2020to2022-JiangKejunEnergyResearchInstitute,China1ERI,China2Keyword:Transition–mitigationtoreachsomeclimatechangetargets15CategoryI15CategoryII15CategoryIII(<400ppmCO)(<400-440ppmCO)(<440-485ppmCO2)22101010withoutneg.555emissionswithneg.em

2、issionsEmissions(GtC)000N=27N=19N=76-5-5-5200020202040206020802100200020202040206020802100200020202040206020802100Transformation:CO2emission,arapidchangeCO2 Emission in China14000 12000 10000 Baseline8000 LC‐CO2Mt6000 ELC4000 2Degree 2000 0 2000200520102020203020402050What’sthefutureofChina’slow

3、carbonpolicy:abigpicture•Economicstructureoptimizationpolicies•Energyefficiencypolicies•Renewableenergy/nuclearpowergenerationorientedpolicies•CCS•Lowcarbonconsumption/lifestyle•Landuseemissionreductionpolicies:sofarrelativelypoor5Goodnews•Technologyprogressismuchfasterthanourmodelsays:learningc

4、urveeffects•HighGDPgrowthcouldsupportlowcarbondevelopmentinChina:allcostanalysisinmodelsareverysmallcomparedwithGDP•China’slowcarbonrelatedtechnologymanufactureisgettingleadingintheworld:benefitforeconomy•Localenvironmentissueswillbeaverystrongfactortogotocleanproduction,nearlymatchwithlowcarbon

5、development6Investmentbyindustrialsectors建筑业工业分部门投资自来水的生产和供应业煤气的生产和供应业蒸汽热水生产供应业180000电力生产供应业其他工业仪器仪表文化办公用机械160000电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业交通运输设备制造业140000普通机械、专用设备制造业金属制品业有色金属120000黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业非金属矿物制品业100000橡胶制品业,塑料制品业化学纤维制造业亿元医药制造业80000化学原料及制品制造业炼焦业60000石油加工印刷业记录媒介的复制,文教体育用品制造业造纸及纸制品业40000木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、

6、家具制造业服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造纺织业20000烟草加工业食品饮料加工、制造业0非金属矿采选业,其他矿采选业,木材及竹材采运业有色金属矿采选业200520102020203020402050黑色金属矿采选业年份天然气开采业石油7煤炭采选业农业Productsoutputinmajorsectors,LowCarbonandELCUnit20052020203020402050SteelMillionton355610570440360CementMillionton1060160016001200900MillionGlass399650690670580casesCopperMi

7、llionton2.6776.54.6AmmoniaMillionton8.5116161512EthyleneMillionton5.17.276.55.5SodaAshMillionton14.672324.523.522CasuticMillionton12.6424252524PaperMillionton62.05110115120120FertilizerMillionton52.261616161AluminumMillionto