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1、Inthispaper,amodelisestablishedtoprovideameasureoftheabilityofaregiontoprovidecleanwatertomeettheneedsofitspopulation,andfindoutthereasonforthelackofwaterresources.Specifictasksareasfollows:ForTask1:Weestablishamodel.Inthemodel,wethinkthesupplyofclean
2、waterdependsontheamountofsurfacewater,undergroundwaterandsewagepurification.Thewaterrequirementsaredecidedbytheamountoflifewater,agriculturalwaterandindustrialwaterintheregion.Inwatersupply,surfacewaterisaffectedbytheannualaveragetemperature,annualave
3、rageprecipitationandforestcoveragerate.Thegroundwaterisimpactedbytheannualaveragetemperature,annualaverageprecipitation.Theagriculturalwaterisaffectedbythepopulationoftheregionandannualaverageprecipitation.TheGDPoftheregioninfluencestheindustrialwater
4、consumption.Weusetheprincipleofmultivariatenonlinearregressiontofindouttheregressioncoefficient.Andthenmakesureitsfunction.Theratioofwatersupplyandwaterrequirementsisusedasameasureoftheabilityofaregiontoprovidecleanwater.Wefindthattheabilityofaregiont
5、oprovidecleanwaterisgoodornotbycomparingtheratiowith1.ForTask2:ThemodelselectstheShandongProvinceofChinaasthetestingregion.WeanalysethedataofChina'sShandongareabetween2005and2014,andthencrystallizethemodelthroughthethoughtofthefunctionfittingandmultiv
6、ariatenonlinearregression.Bythemodel,wethinkShandongprovince'sabilitytoprovidecleanwaterisweak.Andthenfromtwoaspectswhichphysicalshortageandshortageofeconomic,thispaperanalysesthecausesofwatershortageinShandongProvince,andthustesttheapplicabilityofthe
7、model.ForTask3:Weselectseveralfactorsaffectingwatersupplyandwaterdemandbadly,whichisannualprecipitation,annualaveragetemperature,theforestcoveragerateandpopulationforecast.WeanalysethedataofChina'sShandongareabetween2005and2014,accordingwhichtopredict
8、thechangesofthosefactorsin15years.AfterthatthispaperusesthemodeltoanalysethesituationofShandong’swaterin15years.ForTask4:AccordingtothemodelinTask1andtheanalysisoftheTask2.WefindthemainfactorsinfluencingtheabilitytoprovidecleanwaterinChina'sSh
