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1、J$16o0}POLICYRESEARCHWORKINGPAPER1607PublicDisclosureAuthorizedPopulationAgingAs_hinaspoulationage,-ChinamustacdressandPensionSystemsmacroecononicssuesaffectingitsol.-agesociaiReformOptionsforChinasecuritysysten.rotjustthePublicDisclosureAuthorizeddesignandm,-inagemeneotpensionf
2、undsF.DesmondMcCarthyKangbinZhengPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedTheWorldBankOfficeoftheSeniorVicePresidentDevelopmentEconomicsMay1996IPOLICYRESEARCHWORKINGPAPER1607SummaryfindingsUsinganintegratedsimulationmodel,McCarthyandReaiincomegrowthisneededtocopewithpo
3、vertyZhengestimatethescopeandspeedofpopulation-agingamongtheelderly,especiallyindevelopingcountries.ToinChina,thecostofsupportingtheold,andtheimpactestablishanadequate,efficient,andequitablesocialofdifferentreformoptionsandpensionarrangements.securitysystem,Chinamustmaintainlong-
4、termAmongtheirconclusions:socioeconomicstabilityandsustainablegrowth.Thescopeandspeedofpopuiation-aginginChinaChinacouldimprovethelabormarketbyremovingmakethepresentpensionsystemfinanciallymanagementrigidities,facilitatinghumanresourceunsustainable,evenassumingthatGDPgrowssteadil
5、vindevelopment,makinglabormarketsmorecompetitive,thelongterm.Movingtheretirementagebackwouldimprovingthehouseholdregistrationsystem,improvingprovideatemporaryfixforthecurrentpay-as-you-goincentives,andrewardinghardandinnovativework.Topensionsystembutwouldbepoliticallvviableonlyre
6、duceunemployment,Chinacancreatemorejobwherethereisgreatdemandforlabor.oppor-tunitiesinnontraditionalsectors,especiallyitsPensionfundscouldbemademoresustainablebyunderdevelopedserviceindustries.ToshiftjobstotheincreasingGDPgrowth,raisingcontributionrates,ornonagriculturalsector,it
7、candevelopmedium-sizecities.graduallyreducingbenefitrates.BlutthefinancialcostsAndtocushiontheimpactofdemographicshocks,Chinaandsocialobstaclesofthoserefornmoptionsmustbeshouldpreservetraditionalvaluesandmaintainfamily-carefullyassessed.Ftullyfunded,privatelymanagedcommunitysuppo
8、rt.pensionschemesmightbefeasible,butrequ
