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ID:39449905
大小:1.32 MB
页数:193页
时间:2019-07-03
《Thesis - Probabilistic Models for Life Cycle Management of E》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、ProbabilisticModelsforLifeCycleManagementofEnergyInfrastructureSystemsbySureshVarmaDatlaAthesispresentedtotheUniversityofWaterlooinfulfillmentofthethesisrequirementforthedegreeofDoctorofPhilosophyinCivilEngineeringWaterloo,Ontario,Canada,2007©SureshDatla2007AUTHOR'SDECLARATION
2、IherebydeclarethatIamthesoleauthorofthisthesis.Thisisatruecopyofthethesis,includinganyrequiredfinalrevisions,asacceptedbymyexaminers.Iunderstandthatmythesismaybemadeelectronicallyavailabletothepublic.iiAbstractThedegradationofagingenergyinfrastructuresystemshasthepotentialtoin
3、creasetheriskoffailure,resultinginpoweroutageandcostlyunplannedmaintenancework.Therefore,thedevelopmentofscientificandcost-effectivelifecyclemanagement(LCM)strategieshasbecomeincreasinglyimportanttomaintainenergyinfrastructure.Sincedegradationofagingequipmentisanuncertainproce
4、sswhichdependsonmanyfactors,arisk-basedapproachisrequiredtoconsidertheeffectofvariousuncertaintiesinLCM.Thethesispresentsprobabilisticmodelstosupportrisk-basedlifecyclemanagementofenergyinfrastructuresystems.Inadditiontouncertaintyindegradationprocess,theinspectiondatacollecte
5、dbytheenergyindustryisoftencensoredandtruncatedwhichmakeitdifficulttoestimatethelifetimeprobabilitydistributionoftheequipment.Thethesispresentsmodernstatisticaltechniquesinquantifyinguncertaintiesassociatedwithinspectiondataandtoestimatethelifetimedistributionsinaconsistentman
6、ner.Age-basedandsequentialinspection-basedreplacementmodelsareproposedformaintenanceofcomponentinalarge-distributionnetwork.Aprobabilisticlifetimemodeltoconsidertheeffectofimperfectpreventivemaintenanceofacomponentisdevelopedanditsimpacttomaintenanceoptimizationisillustrated.T
7、hethesispresentsastochasticmodelforthepittingcorrosionprocessinsteamgenerators(SG),whichisaseriousformofdegradationinSGtubingofsomenucleargeneratingstations.Themodelisappliedtoestimatethenumberoftubesrequiringpluggingandtheprobabilityoftubeleakageinanoperatingperiod.Theapplica
8、tionandbenefitsofthemodelareillustratedinthecontextofmanaging
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