Probabilistic Graphical Models

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1、UNIVERSIDADNACIONALDEEDUCACIÓNADISTANCIAESCUELATÉCNICASUPERIORDEINGENIERÍAINFORMÁTICADEPARTMENTOFARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEPh.D.ThesisProbabilisticGraphicalModelsforDecisionMakinginMedicineManuelLuqueGallegoComputerEngineerMadrid,2009DepartmentofArticialIntelligenceEscuelaTécnicaSuperiordeIngenierí

2、aInformáticaUniversidadNacionaldeEducaciónaDistanciaPhDThesisDissertation:ProbabilisticGraphicalModelsforDecisionMakinginMedicinebyManuelLuqueGallegoComputerEngineerSupervisedbyProf.Dr.FranciscoJavierDíezVegasMadrid,September2009Ph.D.Thesis/TESISDOCTORALPROBABILISTICGRAPHICALMODELSFORDECISIONMAK

3、INGINMEDICINEBy/Por:ManuelLuqueGallegoSupervisor/DirectordelaTesis:Prof.Dr.FranciscoJavierDíezVegasCommittee/TribunalcalicadorPresident/Presidente:Prof.Dr.SerafínMoralCallejónSecretary/Secretario:Prof.Dr.ManuelGómezOlmedoFirstmember/VocalPrimero:Prof.Dr.PeterLucasSecondmember/VocalSegundo:Prof.

4、Dr.DavidRíosInsúaThirdmember/VocalTercero:Prof.ªDr.ªConchaBielzaLozoyaMadrid,November20,2009Tomyparents(Amispadres)ContentsAcknowledgements..................................iListofFigures.....................................iiiListofTables.....................................viiListofAlgorithms.

5、.................................ixIINTRODUCTION11Introduction31.1Motivation....................................31.2Objectives....................................41.3Methodology..................................51.4Organizationofthethesis...........................6IIFUNDAMENTALS72Stateoftheart:

6、Probabilisticgraphicalmodels92.1Basicconceptsaboutgraphs..........................92.2Bayesiannetworks...............................102.3Inuencediagrams...............................102.3.1Policiesandstrategies.........................142.3.2Evaluationalgorithms.........................162.4U

7、nconstrainedinuencediagrams.......................262.4.1LimitationsofIDsforpartiallyordereddecisions...........262.4.2UIDrepresentation...........................282.4.3SolvingaUID..............................292.5Explana