The Value of Reliability in Power Systems文稿

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1、MITEL99-005WPEnergyLaboratoryMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyTheValueofReliabilityinPowerSystems-PricingOperatingReserves-June1999THEVALUEOFRELIABILITYINPOWERSYSTEMS-PRICINGOPERATINGRESERVES-JoséFernandoPradaEL99-005WPJuly1999THEVALUEOFRELIABILITYINPOWERSYSTEMS-PRICINGOPERATINGRESERVES-byJoséFerna

2、ndoPradaABSTRACTTheprovisionofoperatingreserveinpowersystemsisrevisitedinthecontextofthederegulatedpowerindustryandofcompetitivepowermarkets.Theoperatingreserveisstand-bycapacitythatmustbekeptreadytogenerateenergytoprovideforun-plannedoutagesofgeneratingunits.Theformerproblemofestablishingreservere-

3、quirementsintheregulatedindustryhasturnedintothequestionofwhatkindofmechanismsshouldbedevisedtoallocateandpricethisserviceincompetitivepowermarkets.Thisreportanalyzestheallocationofoperatingreservesatthesystemoperatorlevel.Inthepast,reserverequirementshavebeendefinedusingdeterministiccriteriasuchas"

4、peakloadpercentage"or"lossoflargestunit",whichfailtoconsistentlyde-finetheriskofsupplyshortagesinthesystem.Furthermore,thesequantity-constrainedmethodsdonotexplicitlyaddresseconomiccriteriaand,whenemployedincompetitivemarkets,theydonotcapturetheworthofaddedreliabilityprovidedbycapacityreserves.Thisw

5、orkproposestheallocationofoperatingreservesthroughcapacitymarketsusingastochasticdemandmodel.Theinsurance-likecharacteristicsoftheoperatingreserveareusedtoderiveavaluationmodelwhichisanalyticallyconsistentandre-flectstheeconomicvaluetocustomersofaddedreliability.Themodelcanbeex-pressedintheformofade

6、mandcurveforoperatingreserve.Thiscurvecanbeusedinauction-typecapacitymarketstodeterminetheamountofreservetobeprovidedanditstradingprice.-2-FOREWORDThisreportisbasedonarelatedMasterofSciencethesissubmittedtotheDepart-mentofElectricalEngineeringandComputerScienceandtheTechnologyandPolicyProgramatMIT.T

7、hereportisdeliberatelyshorterthantheoriginalthesisandthepresentationofthematerialhasbeenreorganizedforconcisenessandclarity.ThethesissupervisorwasDr.MarijaD.Ilic,EECSSeniorResearchScientistandassociat