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大小:562.36 KB
页数:5页
时间:2019-05-18
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1、!"#$%&(ChineseJournalofAgrometeorology)2010,31(4):607-611doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2010.04.022ÂÃÄÅÆ-F/VÇȬ¢£DEF,#GH,IJK,LMN,OP*()%&Ô,àÜ541001)67:IJp8:ñ5a=¨ñ_?@<%&?@VtpuKL,da8:¨ñ_S%&^(ef、g=、ï、Ê、Ef),PQÇ%&»¼l®;i,jdGêKLîj,Ãç=¨ñS%&»¼ï01ù£$。£$!S1ùp&v%&»¼¦×ï0,KÇl¼Ç1ù,ò1ùp&l1ù^ÓKv50,d8%&c`S
2、~、,f8W><%1ùy},¦×KLÇ®;i_ûc,pL~、,l1~7déƨñS%&»¼ï0Vt1ù。1ù$öóWØd?£,éÆ1ùklË;¦K70%,_bØ!K½Sád。89::¨ñ;%&»¼;ï01ùMeteorologicalConditionGradesForecastforOccurrenceofCnaphalocrocismedinalisGueneBAIXianda,TANGGuangtian,ZHANGYaxin,ZOULixia,JIANGYunzhi(GuilinMeteorologicalBureau,Guilin541001,China
3、)Abstract:BycomparingtheoccurrencedataofCnaphalocrocismedinalisGueneandmeteorologicaldatainpastfiveyearsinGuilinregion,themeteorologicalfactorsofaffectingtheoccurrenceofCnaphalocrocismedinalisGuenewereselected.Accordingtothefactors,themeteorologicalconditiongradesforecastmodelforoccurrenc
4、eofCnaphalocrocismedinalisGuenewasestablishedbyusingregressionanalysismethod.Themodelwasusedtopredictthemeteorologicalconditionintegritygrades,whichincludedlong-termforecastandshort-termforecast.Alsoconsideringtheweatherforecastresults,themodelcouldpredictwhetherthefuturemeteorologicalcon
5、ditionwassuitabletooccurrenceofCnaphalocrocismedinalisGuene,inquarterayear,onemonth,evenoneweek.Theforecastaccuracyratewasmorethan70%,whichplayedagreatroleinagriculturalactivities.Keywords:CnaphalocrocismedinalisGuene;Meteorologicalcondition;Gradesforecastñ10aL,]Ùï%hTðl#ye(OïTý'ìf_S8:[34
6、]。½¦ïp¨ñNSS,8:¨ñªB4¢'S§±JìM44VtKL,X¨ñS®r&,Ó#$ÛSÕf',ËN+âp±VtK§]Mue,'¨%·¥¹,À4©,uu±S,-,¡¹ïKLÈv,¨ñªSîïBpÿCSîï,SÊfp¡K¨ñB¢'Sÿ´_¢Ç3(î±S®;iüSÊf[56];Õ~ôïIJp,;¤¦?@¢[12]。ß"£ï、¤¥âï,-X,:SKL,X]Û!eflEfS,¨ñS¨ñÿÀöø,½Sý(ðE%·!(9!SÕf500-2000m[7]。ªQ1、!«、况lßV,ù,xÀý©%·!©ï(G,î¬ïp¨ñS%&»¼Vt,(L©WS¨ñËNµùJ:,p-,
7、Èv%&»¼p¨ñS、gF、³µ:,DGvàܨñ+kÓ¦KY+'Sád[810];ßP(ïp¨ñÄÅÆÇ:20100408ÈÉÊË:àÜ)*ÌÔÐÑÊË(20090709)áâãä:é;(1957-),G,àÜè,+ê,Õ0ëìí,3
8、_q<#$%&,-。Email:glqxbxd@163.com·608·!"#$%&ð31ñ_ìfS%&1ùVt,-,dÇ®8IÇg40:ûc(!f_),10%≤Ù)]BQ[11]=、ef1ùVtL®1¦,Èv²jø,<20%;Æ%elg=JìS1ù,rX1¦±Õ50:½ûc('f
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