汇丰银行全球宏观经济Q2展望

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1、ECONOMICSGLOBALQ22018By:JanetHenryandJamesPomeroyhttps://www.research.hsbc.comGlobalEconomicsCouldthesweetspotturnsour?Theglobalsynchronisedrecoverylookssettocontinuein2018Weaddressanumberofthingsthatcouldgowrong……fromgrowthandinflationriskstomonetarypo

2、licysurprisesandtradewarsDisclaimer&Disclosures:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitECONOMICS●GLOBALQ22018ExecutiveSummaryVoteinExtel2018Whatcouldgowrong?14M

3、arch–27AprilIfyouvalueourserviceandinsight,NotquiteGoldilocks.Atleastnotlikeitwasinthelate1990swhenrapidinvestment,avoteforHSBCproductivitysurge,stronggrowth,robustwagegains,recordlowunemploymentandstillClickheretovotesubduedinflationcoinedthedescriptio

4、nofaUSeconomythatwasneithertoohotnortoocold.GlobalgrowthremainsrobustButtheglobaleconomycertainlystillseemstobeinsomethingofasweetspot.Globalgrowthbypost-crisisstandardsisveryrobustbypost-crisisstandards,allregionsoftheworldareparticipatinginasynchronis

5、edupturnandunemploymentisfallingmoreorlesseverywhere.Thedeflationriskhasbeenavertedbutinflationisgenerallyverycontainedandinterestratesarestilllow.Themainquestionfinancialmarketparticipantsareaskingthemselvesis:whatmightgowrong?ButconcernsaregrowingShou

6、ldtheybeworriedaboutgrowth?Orinflation?And,ifneither,whataboutageopoliticalshock(egafull-blowntradewar)whichmighttrigger,ataminimum,anassetpriceshock?SynchronisedbutlessdispersedSynchronisedgrowthmayhavesometimessowntheseedsofitsowndestructionintheGrowt

7、hhasalreadypeakedinpast–typicallywhenamonetaryresponsetohigherUSorglobalinflation,orexpectationofit,Japanandeurozonetriggersafinancialmarketoreconomicshocksomewhereintheworld.Butthisisnotcurrentlysomethingweareforecastingfortheyearahead.2018shouldbeanot

8、hersolidyearofgrowthintheglobaleconomy.AlthoughwethinkthatgrowthhasalreadypeakedintheeuroareaandJapan,weexpectmuchofEMtoactuallypickupmarginally.TherecentlypassedUStaxandspendingplanshavealreadyliftedourUSforecastsalittle–ourUSta