基于经济增长的耕地非农化收敛性研究

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1、中国农业科学院硕士学位论文基于经济增长的耕地非农化收敛性研究姓名：刘丽军申请学位级别：硕士专业：农业经济管理指导教师：屈宝香20070601AbstractNowadaysChinaisexperiencingrapidecononlicdevelopment,rapidindustrializationandurbanizationprogresspromptingcultivatedlandtoOOnVer暑eIIx’requickly．Especiallyintheeasterncoastalp

2、rovincesofChina,forexampleZhcjiangandJiangsu，theirprocessofcultivatedlandconversion(CLC)isremarkablyuprising．Thedouble-increasedevelopmentofeconomyandCLCisfundamentallyinfluencingtheland-resourcemanagement,foodsecurity,economicandsocialsustainabledevelo

3、pmentinChina．Thesequestionsintriguetheauthortostarthismasterthesisresearch．Tostudytheco-moverelationshipbetweenCLCandeconomicgrowth，andthescaleandregionalconverganceofCLCintheeconomicgrowth．it’shelpfulforustoreconsiderthewholegoalandregionalgoalwhenperf

4、ormingthepoliciesrelatedtofarmlandprotection．This咖dyemploysthemethodologyof‘'Fact-Hypothesis-Test"．Firstly,itdescribesthesituationofbothcLcandeconomicgrowthinChina,depictstheelementaryrelation,androughlyconcludesthatCLcisthemainreasonforthedeclineofcult

5、iv锄edland；thehistoricaltrendofCLCandeconomicgrowthisalmostidentical,buttheirpeak-valuetimeisdifferent．EconomicgrowthwillpropelCLCtowor∞inashorttermandrestrainitinalongterm；CLCalsocaucontributetoeconomicgrowthinashortterm．Inaddition．CLCmostlyaccountsfur5

6、％一15％offoodproduction’sfluctuationannually,butitshouldbeoneofthemostthreateningfaetorawhichinfluencefoodsecurityintheviewoffoodcomprehensiveproductioncapabilityandsustainabledevelopment．Sequentially,basedoffthechangeofthedemandforlandresourceduringtheec

7、onomicgrowth，itputsforwardtwohypotheses：scaleconverganceandregionalconvergence．ThisstIldytakesprovincialyearlyCLCareaandrealpercapitaGDP∞keyvariables．ThroughPaneldataequation．ittestthekuzonets∞l'Ve(KC)ofCLC，thenshowsthatthescaleofCLCwillchangeasinverse-

8、Ushape(up-hillanddown-hill)withprocessofeconomicgrowth，tendstoconverganceintheend．ItstheoreticalthresholdisthatwhenpercapitaGDPreaches42，342．2RMB．(Calculatedbythepriceof2005)．Uptonow,onlyBeijingandShanghaihavealreadywontacrossthe