大众汽车成本分析和利润预测(英文)

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1、ChinaprofitanalysisVolkswagen(VOWG.F)Germany:AutomobilesWeakerChinesemarginsariskfor’04earnings.China""islikelytocontribute70%-80%ofVW’sEPSthisyear,but3QNovember6,2003resultsshowworryingsignsoffallingearningsinthismarket.IfStockrating:In-LineChineseprofitsdec

2、linein2004,theimpactcouldoffsetsomeoftheCoverageview:NeutralgainsexpectedfromthenewGolf/othermodelsinEurope.IL/N.Large-CapGrowthPrice:EUR44.45Chineseprofitsarethemaindriverof2003earningsThisreportisbasedonourmorningnoteofNovember4,VW'sstrongexposuretotheChine

3、seautomarketisoftencitedasapositiveforthestock.2003.Chinawilllikelybethekeydriverofearningsin2003,contributingc.70%-80%ofreportedEPSthankstoequityincomefromtheJVsandoperatingprofitsfromsellingparts.Onequarterdoesnotmakeatrend,but3QresultsshowworryingsignsWese

4、eworryingsignsinVW's3QresultsthatChineseprofitsmayalreadybeslipping.Pro-formaEBITfromtheChineseJVsfell35%yoy,despitemuchhighervolumes,suggestingmuchlowermargins.ProfitsfromsellingpartstotheChineseJVsalsoappearedtofall.WealsoseesomeevidencethatinventoriesofPol

5、o,GolandAudiA6arerisinginChina.KeithHayeskeith.hayes@gs.comLondon:44-20-7774-1142AweakChineseresultin2004couldreduceEPSbyEUR1.00ormoreWeestimatethatChinawillcontributeoverEUR2.00ofEPSin2003,andourcurrent2004EMaxWarburtonforecastassumesEUR2.50ofEPSderivesfromC

6、hina.ButifChineseprofitsin2004runatmax.warburton@gs.comLondon:44-20-7774-59053Q’sweaklevel,theChinesecontributioncouldeasilyfalltoonlyEUR1.60nextyear.ManningDohertyGainsfromGolfandGermanymaynotbeenoughforVWtohitconsensusmanning.doherty@gs.com2004islikelytosee

7、VW’sUSprofitabilityfallfurther,probablyintoloss.IfChinaalsoHongKong:852-2978-1024declines,itplacesevenmorepressureonEuropetodeliveranimprovement.OurestimatesShaneMcKennaalreadyassumethatthenewGolfandothermodelscandeliveraEUR500mn+improvementshane.mckenna@gs.c

8、ominEBITinEurope,yetweexpectEPSofonlyEUR3.90.ConsensusisstillbetweenEUR4.50London:44-20-7552-2919andEUR5.00for2004.WeareconcernedthatexpectationsforanearningsimprovementatAvaneeshAcquilla