澳大利亚金融业：财报季风险呈下降趋势

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1、ResearchAnalystsJamesCordukes,CFA61282054858AustralianDiversifiedFinancials4February2019AsiaPacific/AustraliaEquityResearchDiversifiedFinancialsPRERESULTSCOMMENTjames.cordukes@credit-suisse.comAndrewAdams61282054106andrew.adams@credit-suisse.comAnnaMilne61282054369anna.miln

2、e@credit-suisse.comReportingseasonrisksskewedtodownsideWegenerallyseemoredownsideriskamongstthediversifiedfinancialsaheadofreportingseason.Howeverfollowingasectorde-ratingweexpectthatthosewhodeliveronearningscouldseeapositivesharepriceresponse.Resultswithdownsideearningsrisk

3、■CGF:Despiteapre-announcedresult,westillseescopefordownsiderisk.Flowscoulddisappoint,detailsintheresultcouldraiseconcernsoffurtherCOEmargincompressionanddiscussiononregulatorytailwindscouldbelessoptimisticthaninthepast.■CPU:Adeteriorationinoperatingconditionslatein1H19Ereduce

4、sthelikelihoodofanupgradetoFY19Eguidance.WhileweexpectCPUcanstillmeetitsguidance,thiscouldstilldisappointsomewhowereexpectinganupgradeincludingconsensus(whosit~4%abovetheguidance).■NWL:Consensusearningsappeartoohighwiththisresultholdingthepotentialtoseeconsensusdowngradestore

5、venueandEBITDAmargins.■IFL:WhilethefocuswillbeontheimpactofAPRA'sactions,theRoyalCommissionandANZacquisition,thereisdownsideearningsriskduetoacostmiss(highercostinflationduetocompliance/regulatoryburden).■PTM:DespiteFuMbeingknownandpostbalancedateguidanceonperformancefeesandi

6、nvestmentincome,consensusforecastslooktoohighposingdownsideearningsrisk.Theflowsoutlookcouldalsobebleak.■HUB:Thereispotentialfordisappointmentonrevenuemargins(clientmix,competition)andEBITDAmargin(costinflationforclienton-boardings).Resultswithmixedtrendsandlowsurpriseresults

7、■JHG:Whileinexpensive(~9.5x),thisresultisunlikelytobeaturningpointwithoutflowslikelytoacceleratein4Q18Eandmanagementlikelytobecautiousontheoutlook.Anybuy-backislikelytobetokenistic.■ASX:Alowsurpriseresultgivenactivitylevelsareknown.Focuswillbeonupdatesonsomeofthestrategicinit

8、iatives(DLT,Sympli,dataanalytics).■MFG:AlowsurpriseresultgivenFuM,fl