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1、TheCreditSuisseConnectionsSeriesleveragesourexceptionalbreadthofmacroandmicroresearchtodeliverincisivecross-sectorandcross-borderthematicinsightsforourclients.ResearchAnalystsJianpingChen85221017189jianping.chen@credit-suisse.comPatrickNg85221017163patrick.ng@credit-suisse.comSummer
2、Wang,CFA85221016539summer.wang@credit-suisse.com19October2018AsiaPacific/HongKongEquityResearchRealEstateChinaPropertySectorTHEMEThenewnormalFigure1:Newstartswilldeclinealbeitataslowerpaceofsales3,500403,0002,500302,0001,500201,000105001999A2000A2001A2002A2003A2004A2005A2006A2007A2
3、008A2009A2010A2011A2012A2013A2014A2015A2016A2017A2018E2019E2020E00Saleableresources(mnsqm)Inventorydigestionperiod(#mths)(RHS)Source:CEIC,CreditSuisseestimates■Revisingdowngrowthestimates.WeestimateChina’sannualnewhomesalesscaleat1.23bnsqminGFAover2018-27E,or15%belowthelevelof1.45bn
4、sqmin2017.Theslowdowninthemonetisationschemeforshanty-townredevelopmentistodragpropertysales,andweexpectthevolumetodeclineby11.6%/6.6%YoYin2019/20E.Amidthetrend,weexpectnewstartstodropby8%/5%YoYin2019/20E.Theweaknessinthehousingmarketshouldofferroomforsomepolicyrelaxationin2019.■Lar
5、gedevelopersbetterplacedforadownturn.Despitethestructuraldemanddecline,wethinkleadingdevelopersarebetterpositionedandwillcontinuetoexpandtheirmarketshare.WeexpectcontractedsalesCAGRat21%over2017-20Eforthe23covereddevelopers,withmarketshareexpandingto48%in2020E(vs30%in2018E).Thisisto
6、translateintoFY17-20EearningsCAGRof22%.■Scorecardtodifferentiatedevelopers.Amidthechanginglandscape,weintroduceamorecomprehensivescorecardtorankdevelopers’edges,including(1)landbank,(2)profitability,(3)salesexecution,and(4)gearing.WerankCRL,Longfor,andCOLIasourTop3picks,whereasGreen
7、town,GZR&F,Evergrande,andAgilearelessfavourablypositioned.■Close-to-troughvaluationpricesinRmb/US$at~7andGFAdown~10%.Weexpectvaluationtobottomoutfromthetroughdespitethedeclineinpropertysales.Whilethetrendissimilarto4Q11-1H12,thesharepricedifferentiationamongdevelopersistotakeadiffer
8、entshape(highgearin
