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1、漫谈金融全球化魏尚进纯属个人观点,言责自负文献小结:金融全球化,理论上好处一条接一条;费尽吃奶尽,实证的效果不妙也不巧.综述文章:Prasad,Rogoff,Wei,andKose,IMF,2003Kose,Prasad,Rogoff,andWei,2005(JEL?)TurkeyIndiaU.S.A.ChinaBenefitsofFinancialIntegration:TheoryDirectChannelsEfficientinternationalallocationofcapitalForcapital-pooreconomies—
2、lowercostofcapital,higherinvestmentSpilloversoftechnologicalandmanagerialexpertiseBenefitsofFinancialIntegration:TheoryIndirectChannelsDomesticfinancialsectordevelopmentSpecializationDiscipliningdeviceformacropoliciesBenefitsofFinancialIntegration:TheoryEffectsonVolatilityN
3、ostrongimplicationforoutputvolatilityConsumptionsmoothingviainternationalrisksharing=>LowerconsumptionvolatilityGrowthBenefitsofFinancialIntegration:EvidenceAbout20studiesofgrowtheffectsNoeffect:4Mixed:12Positive:4閾值效应(ThresholdEffect):政府缺良治,金融开放则危机增发百姓更吃苦;政府有良治,金融开放则投资增加生活
4、有出路.例子:新加坡,香港阿根廷,刚果文献:Wei,2000;Alfaro,Kalemli-OzcanandVolosovych,2003;Klein,2005;ChinnandIto,2005.组合效应(CompositionEffect):国际银行贷款两刃刀,危机增加效率也难保;国际直接投资效果好,资本增加风险又减少.例子:中国vs.阿根廷文献:FrankelandRose;Kose,Prasad,Rogoff,andWei;FrankelandWei.ThecompositionhypothesisNotallcapitalflowsa
5、reequalFDIandmaybeportfolioinflowaremorebeneficialtogrowththandebtDesotoandReisen2001;Bekaert,Harvey,andLundblad,2005,JFEFDIisalsolessvolatilethaninternationalbankloans->MorerelianceonbankloansincreasesvulnerabilitytocurrencycrashesFrankelandRose,1996;FrankelandWei,2005Vola
6、tilityof(FDI/GDP)and(Loan/GDP) (1980-2003,MeasuredbyStandardDeviation)FDI/GDPLoan/GDPVolatilityof(FDI/GDP)and(Loan/GDP) (1980-2003,MeasuredbyCoefficientofVariation)FDI/GDPLoan/GDP閾值效应与组合效应:文献中提出为两个独立的解释两者是否可能是同一硬币的两面?魏尚进(2000,2001);魏尚进与武屹(2002)Corruptionislinkedtoacompositi
7、onofcapitalinflowsawayfromFDIandtowardsbankloans.FeiraandMauro(2005):Higherinstitutionalquality->highershareof“equity-like”capitalflowsintotalforeignliabilities.反对意见:Albuqurque(2004JIE):worsecreditratingrelatedtomore(notless)FDI/totalinflows.即使成立,怎么知道是因果关系?迎击挑战:金融体制与其他政府良治指
8、标对外来资本组合的影响可能不一.寻找工具变量来确认因果关系.金融体制与其他政府良治指标对外来资本组合的影响可能不一.鞠建东与魏尚进(2005),Caballero,
