欢迎来到天天文库
浏览记录
ID:9594085
大小:78.02 KB
页数:4页
时间:2018-05-03
《高考英语阅读理解精读试题7》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在应用文档-天天文库。
1、江苏省高三英语阅读理解精读(7)ForecastingofStatisticsNearlytwothousandyearshavepassedsinceacensusdecreedbyCaesarAugustusbecomepartofthegreateststoryevertold.Manythingshavechangedintheinterveningyears.Thehotelindustryworriesmoreaboutoverbuildingthanovercrowding,andiftheyhadtomeetanunexpectedinflux,
2、fewinnswouldhaveamanagertoaccommodatethewearyguests.Nowitisthecensustakerthatdoesthetravelinginthefondhopethatahighlymobilepopulationwillstaylongenoughtogetagoodsampling.Methodsofgathering,recording,andevaluatinginformationhavepresumablybeenimprovedagreatdeal.Andwherethenitwasthemode
3、stpurposeofRometoobtainasimpleheadcountasanadequatebasisforlevyingtaxes,nowbatteriesofcomplicatedstatisticalseriesfurnishedbygovernmentalagenciesandprivateorganizationsareeagerlyscannedandinterpretedbysagesandseerstogetacluetofutureevents.TheBibledoesnottellushowtheRomancensustakersm
4、adeout,andasregardsourmoreimmediateconcern,thereliabilityofpresentdayeconomicforecasting,thereareconsiderabledifferencesofopinion.Theywereairedatthecelebrationofthe125thanniversaryoftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation.Therewasthethoughtthatbusinessforecastingmightwellbeonitswayfromanar
5、ttoascience,andsomespeakerstalkedaboutnewfangledcomputersandhigh-falutinmathematicalsystemintermsofexcitementandendearmentwhichwe,atleastinouryoungeryearswhenthesethingsmattered,wouldhaveassociatedmorereadilywiththedescriptionofafairmaiden.Butotherspointedtothedeplorablerecordofhighl
6、yesteemedforecastsandforecasterswithabattingaveragebelowthatoftheMets,andthePresident-electoftheAssociationcautionedthat“highpoweredstatisticalmethodsareusuallyinorderwherethefactsarecrudeandinadequate,theexactcontraryofwhatcrudeandinadequatestatisticiansassume.”Welefthisbirthdaypart
7、ysomewherebetweenhopeanddespairandwiththeconviction,notreallynewlyacquired,thatproperstatisticalmethodsappliedtoascertainablefactshavetheirmeritsineconomicforecastingaslongasneitherforecasternorpublicisdeludedintomistakingthedelineationofprobabilitiesandtrendsforapredictionofcertaint
8、iesofmathema
此文档下载收益归作者所有