高考英语阅读理解精读试题7

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1、江苏省高三英语阅读理解精读（7）ForecastingofStatisticsNearlytwothousandyearshavepassedsinceacensusdecreedbyCaesarAugustusbecomepartofthegreateststoryevertold.Manythingshavechangedintheinterveningyears.Thehotelindustryworriesmoreaboutoverbuildingthanovercrowding,andiftheyhadtomeetanunexpectedinflux,fewin

2、nswouldhaveamanagertoaccommodatethewearyguests.Nowitisthecensustakerthatdoesthetravelinginthefondhopethatahighlymobilepopulationwillstaylongenoughtogetagoodsampling.Methodsofgathering,recording,andevaluatinginformationhavepresumablybeenimprovedagreatdeal.Andwherethenitwasthemodestpurposeo

3、fRometoobtainasimpleheadcountasanadequatebasisforlevyingtaxes,nowbatteriesofcomplicatedstatisticalseriesfurnishedbygovernmentalagenciesandprivateorganizationsareeagerlyscannedandinterpretedbysagesandseerstogetacluetofutureevents.TheBibledoesnottellushowtheRomancensustakersmadeout,andasreg

4、ardsourmoreimmediateconcern,thereliabilityofpresentdayeconomicforecasting,thereareconsiderabledifferencesofopinion.Theywereairedatthecelebrationofthe125thanniversaryoftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation.Therewasthethoughtthatbusinessforecastingmightwellbeonitswayfromanarttoascience,andsomes

5、peakerstalkedaboutnewfangledcomputersandhigh-falutinmathematicalsystemintermsofexcitementandendearmentwhichwe,atleastinouryoungeryearswhenthesethingsmattered,wouldhaveassociatedmorereadilywiththedescriptionofafairmaiden.Butotherspointedtothedeplorablerecordofhighlyesteemedforecastsandfore

6、casterswithabattingaveragebelowthatoftheMets,andthePresident-electoftheAssociationcautionedthat“highpoweredstatisticalmethodsareusuallyinorderwherethefactsarecrudeandinadequate,theexactcontraryofwhatcrudeandinadequatestatisticiansassume.”Welefthisbirthdaypartysomewherebetweenhopeanddespai

7、randwiththeconviction,notreallynewlyacquired,thatproperstatisticalmethodsappliedtoascertainablefactshavetheirmeritsineconomicforecastingaslongasneitherforecasternorpublicisdeludedintomistakingthedelineationofprobabilitiesandtrendsforapredictionofcertaintiesofmathema