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1、PrudentialEquityGroup,LLCResearchPrudentialEquityGroup,LLCResearchBarlow'sBuy-LinesJanuary4,2005IndustryCommentaryConsumerDiscretionaryPublishingIndustryRating:Publishing:NeutralAdvertising:FavorableAllimportantdisclosurescanbefoundbeginningonpage38.StevenN
2、.Barlow(212)778-4424steven_barlow@prusec.comPhilipJ.Mulé(212)778-4805philip_mule@prusec.comC.ScottRattee,CFA(212)778-4790scott_rattee@prusec.com2005PublishingAndAdvertisingForecasts..Thismonthweareprovidingour2005industryforecastsforboththepublishingandadve
3、rtisingsectors.Inthepublishingsector,whatweseeasprobableoperatingheadwindsinpartoftheadvertisingmarketshouldmakemeaningfulupsidefromourcurrentestimatesunlikely.Combinedwithvaluationlevels—whichonaveragearehoveringatneitherparticularlyexpensivenorenticinglyc
4、heaplevels—publishingstocksonthewholeshouldnotoutperformthebroadermarketthisyear.Intheadvertisingindustry,wemaintainourFavorableindustryoutlookdespitethelackof“QuadrennialFactors,”andexpecttheadvertisingstockstooutpacetheperformanceoftheoverallmarket...Thee
5、xpensingofstockoptionsisscheduledtotakeeffectonJuly1,2005.Onpage14,weprovideatabledetailingtheimpactexpensingstockoptionscouldhaveoneachcompany’searningsfor2004comparedto2003...TheS&P500gainedalmost9.0%in2004,butourgroupperformedpoorlycomparatively,upjust1.
6、3%.However,threecompanieswithimprovingfreecashflow.McGrawHill,WashingtonPostandValassisCommunications.beattheS&Pin2004...InNovember,newspaperadvertisingrevenuegrew2.7%yearoveryear,thelowestmonthlygrowthin2004thusfar.Retailwasuponlyslightly,witha2.0%gain.Nat
7、ionalgrew8.3%andClassifiedwasup3.7%.WithinClassified,HelpWantedledallcategories,up12.0%acrossallcompaniesinourcoverageuniverse.RealEstateclassifiedadvertisingcontinuedtogrowsteadily,up9.5%inthemonth.AutomotiveClassifiedremainedweak,down5.0%.Gannett,oneofthe
8、topperformersintermsofoveralladvertisinggrowthin2004,sawgrowthmoderateforthesecondconsecutivemonth,up5.6%,althoughsomeofthedecelerationwasattributabletotougherfourthquartercomparisons.Notably,KnightRid
