麦格理-2018半导体、ia、金融股表现出色

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1、TAIWANTaiwanStrategyTop2018picks2018semis/IA/financialstooutperformBuySellTechNanyaTech(2408)UMC(2303)Raisingour2018TAIEXforecastto11,650NontechAIDC(2634)Eclat(1476)FinE.Sun(2884)MegaFHC(2886)Weliftour2018year-endTAIEXforecastto11,650(from11,300–keepi

2、ngSource:MacquarieResearch,January2018oursame15xconsensusmultiplevsthe8-yearaverageof16x).MarketQFIImonthlyfundflow(2017)estimatesfor2017/18/19EPSgrowthare10%/10%/7%,respectively.Weexpecttechandfinancialstooutperformin2018(non-techtounderperform(NT$bn)

3、again).NanyaTechisourtopstockpickforTaiwanin2018.100TheTAIEXwasup0.8%inDecember,despiteforeignsellingandasecond50monthinarowoftechunderperforming(down4.2%/1.6%inNov/Dec).0ForeignerssoldUS$1.0bninDecember(finishingtheyear+US$5bn,but-50downoffaninflowof

4、US$8.5bnin1H17).TWSEwasup15.0%in2017and-100theNT$appreciated7.9%.Techwasup19.4%,non-techup9.7%,andn-17financialsup10.7%(theTaiwansmallcapindexwasup27.8%).JaFeb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17Dec-17Overweighttechandfinancials,un

5、derweightnon-techQFIImonthlyfundflowTech:WemaintainabullishmultipleyearoutlookonboththesemiconductorSource:TEJ,MacquarieResearch,January2018andtheindustrialautomation(IA)markets–wheremanyofourtopbuypicksDecemberTaiwankeyreports:areconcentrated.Weexpec

6、tmultipleyearsofsemiconductorgrowthtobeKinsus(DowngradetoUnderperform)drivenbyacombinationofcontentgrowthinPCandsmartphones,coupledQuanta(UpgradetoNeutral)withunitgrowthinautoelectronics,IoTrelated,datacenter(pluscontentgrowth),cryptocurrencyrelated,et

7、c.Wistron(UpgradetoNeutral)Withinsemis,welikeTSMC(solidEPSgrowthandtechnologyleadership),ASE(benefitsofSPILacquisition),Powertech(stronggrowthacrossall3majorproducts),NanyaTech(strong2018bitgrowthandhigherDRAMASPs),KingYuan(stronggrowthin2018withlowva

8、luations/highdividendyield),GlobalWafers(continuedrawwaferASPhikes),andParade(high-speedcommunicationtechnology).Fornon-semitechnames,welikeHonHaiAnalyst(s)(long-termgrowthinEVandautomation),AirTAC(continuedmarketshareMacquarieCapitalLi