汇丰银行-韩国金融业-bank of korea watch：on hold,but raising 2017 growth forecast-20170707-hsbc

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1、Flashnote7July2017BankofKoreaWatchECONOMICSKOREAOnhold,butraising2017growthforecastTheBoKislikelytoraiseits2017GDPforecastnextweekJamesLeeandmaysoundmoreoptimisticongrowthEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedjames.dh.lee@hsbc.com.hkThebaserateislikelytobeunchangedat1.

2、25%,aswidely+85228221647expected,withnohintsofnear-termpolicyactionSlowinggrowthfrom2Q17andahighleveloffloating-ratehouseholddebtsuggesttheBoKwillbecautiousofhikingTheBankofKorea(BoK)isscheduledtomeeton13July2017,whenthepolicyrateiswidelyexpectedtobekeptonholdat1.25%bymarketconsensusincludin

3、gHSBC.Assuch,thekeyfocuswillturntotheBank'srevisedeconomicoutlookthatthegovernorwillpresentintheaccompanyingpressconference.With1Q17GDPcominginstrongerthanwhatBoKforecastinApril,thecentralbankwillhavetoraiseits2017growthforecastunlessitreducesitsexpectationsforthefollowingquarters.Thegovernor

4、alreadyhintedthattheforecastcouldberaisedattheJuneMPCmeeting.TheBoKiscurrentlyforecasting2017GDPgrowthat2.6%,whiletheupsidesurprisein1Q17willraisethefullyearforecastby0.2ppts.Therisksaretotheupside,inourview,giventheoptimistictoneofrecentcommentsfromthecentralbank.Financialmarketparticipantsa

5、repricinginafullratehikeoverthenextninemonths,althoughtheseexpectationsmayleadtodisappointment.Mostoftheoptimismiscomingfrombetterexports,whichareshowingtentativesignsofslowinginvolumeterms.Meanwhile,domesticdemandconditionsremainsoft.Slowergrowth,pairedwithhighleveloffloating-ratehouseholdde

6、bt,shouldbeenoughtokeeptheBoKcautiousintermsofadjustmentstothepolicyrateovertheshortterm.1.BoK'skeyeconomicforecasts20162017f2018fGDP(%y-o-y)BoK2.8%2.6%2.9%HSBC2.8%2.7%2.4%✔VoteinAsiamoneyBrokersPoll2017CPI(%y-o-y)BoK1.0%1.9%1.9%HSBC1.0%1.9%1.5%Votingstarts6thJulyCA(USDbn)BoK997573Ifyouvalueo

7、urserviceandinsight,voteforHSBCHSBC998580ClickheretovoteSource:BoK,HSBC.Note:BoKforecastsasofApril2017MiFIDII–ResearchIsyouraccessagreed?CONTACTustodayDisclosures&DisclaimerIssuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedThisrep