麦格里-全球-股票策略-非理性世界中的理性投资-20170905-korea et al rational investing in an irrational world-macquarie

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1、GLOBALKoreaetalMacquarieGlobalThematicsPortfolioRationalinvestinginanirrationalworldPerformance124Politicsregularlylosescontroloverevents…120116Whilenoonewantsawar,historyteachesusthateveryonethinksthatthey112haveachanceofwinningoneandjustifyingoutcomes,ifinfactwarbecomes108inevitable.AsGoering

2、oncecynicallyobserved,“Peoplecanbealways104100broughttobelieve…allyouhavetodoistellthemthattheyarebeing96attackedanddenouncepacifistsforlackofpatriotismandexposingthe161616161616161717171717171717countrytodanger.Itworksthesameinanycountry.”Ifonereadsprivate-Jun--Jul--Jan--Jun--Jul--Aug--Oct--Nov

3、--Dec--Apr--Aug-07070707-Sep-0707070707-Feb-07-Mar-0707-May-070707lettersbetweenthecousins(GermanKaiserandRussianTsar)in1914,oneGlobal"Thematics"portfolio(reltoMSCIACWorld,$TRbasis)canseehowtheytriedtoavoidtheWarbutfailed,becauseofshrillvoicesSource:Bloomberg;MacquarieResearch,Septemberaroundthe

4、m.Ifthereissufficientmomentum,warcouldbecomeinevitable,2017eveniftheleadersthinkitisnotawisechoice.Argumentsthat‘rationalMacquarieGlobal‘QualitySustainabledictatorships’(likeNorthKorea)wouldavoidunderminingtheirownexistenceGrowth’(QSG)PortfolioPerformancebyembarkingonacoursethatcoulddestroythemh

5、aveneverprevented110peopleinthepastfromtryingitandthenlosingcontroloverevents.108106Extremeoutcomesandaccidentsnotonlycannotberuledoutbutinfactare104commonthroughhistory.However,doinvestorshaveinformation,toolsor102expertisetomakeanymeaningfulpredictions?Theanswerisanunequivocal100no.Aswediscus

6、sed(‘DanseMacabre’),equitymarketshaveneverbeen9896goodatpricinggeopoliticalrisks.InvestorscheeredtheGermanblitzkriegall94thewaytothebattleofStalingrad.Marketssimilarlyfailedtoappreciatethe1616161616161616161616171717171717171717eb--F-Apr--Jun--Jul--Sep--Oct--Jan--Feb--Apr--Jun--Jul--Sep-impactof

7、otherevents,fromtheassassinationoftheArchdukeFerdinandto-Aug--Nov--Dec--Aug-0404-Mar-0404-May-04040404040404040404-Mar-0404-May-04040404GermanremilitarizationofRhineland,toKoreaandVietnamtotheArab"GlobalQualitySustainableGro