汇丰银行-7月中国财新制造业采购经理人指数-20170801-hsbc-chinacaixinmanufacturingpmi(july2017)betterthanconsensus-6页

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1、Economics-DataReactions01August2017ChinaCaixinManufacturingPMIKelvin(July2017)LamGreaterChinaEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedBetterthanconsensus+85229966975kelvin.h.p.lam@hsbc.com.hkJuly'sCaixinChinaManufacturingPMIroseto51.1from50.4inJune,bett

2、erthanmarketexpectationsofnochange,andincontrasttoamarginalslowdownintheViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:NBSPMI.Thecomponentsshowthatthemanufacturingsectorrecoveryhashttp://www.research.hsbc.comshiftedupagearwiththeexpansionsinactivitybecomingmorebroad-based.Theonlyflyintheoi

3、ntmentbeingthedeterioratingemploymentmarket,withtherateofIssuerofreportTheHongkongandShanghaijobsheddinginsectorhittingatenmonthhigh.ItisalsoworthnotingthatdespiteBankingCorporationLimitedthedivergencebetweentheofficialNBSandCaixinPMIinthemonth,theDisclosures&Disclaim

4、erfundamentalmessagetheydeliverisbroadlysimilar.Inall,webelievethatThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalysteconomicactivitycontinuedtobesupportedbystronginfrastructureinvestmentcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,andimprovingexports.W

5、ethereforereiterateourviewofagradualbutbroaderwhichformspartofitrecoveryinthecomingquarters,ledbytheprivatesector.Facts•TheCaixinManufacturingPMIroseto51.1inJuly,slightlybelowtheaverageoverthepast12months.•Outputexpandedatafasterpace•Newordersexpandedatafasterpace•Emp

6、loymentcontractedatafasterpace•Supplier’sdeliverytimesriseatafasterpace•StockofitemspurchasedcontractedatafasterpaceinJulyTable1:SummaryofCaixinManufacturingPMISource:Caixin,Markit,HSBCResearch•InputpricesexpandedatamuchfasterpaceEconomics-DataReactionsChinaCaixinManu

7、facturingPMI(July2017)01August2017•Quantityofpurchasesexpandedatafasterpace•Stockoffinishedgoodscontractedatafasterpace•Newexportordersroseatafasterpace•Outputpricesroseatafasterpace•Thebacklogsofworkalsoexpandedatafasterpace.ImplicationsAt51.1,theCaixinManufacturingP

8、MIdatacameinstrongthanlastmonthandthemarkethadexpected.Intermsofdrivers,ahealthylevelofdomesticandexternaldemandhavedrivenou