花旗-亚洲-汽车制造业-汽车行业：印度与印尼

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1、CitiResearchDeepDive

2、Equities15Nov201704:44:25ET│55pagesAutoManufacturersAsiaAutos:Indiavs.IndonesiaIndiaAheadonPVModelCycleModelcyclesdeterminewinners—ThisDeepDivefocusesontheautomodelcyclesinIndiaandIndonesia,thetwolargestautomarketsinSouthAsia.ModelJamshedDadabhoyACcyclesarekeyto

3、understandingOEMs’competitivepositioninginanyautomarket.+65-6657-1146Onouranalysis,thebestplaysontheauto(PV)cycleinIndiaareMarutiSuzukijamshed.dadabhoy@citi.comandparentSuzukiMotor,whichderivesc.65%ofitsOPfromMaruti.InIndonesia,ArvindSharmaACwecontinuetohaveaSellonAstrabecausethenewm

4、odelcycledoesnotfavor+91-22-6175-9852thecompany.Weexpectittolosemarketshare(to50%orbelow,from55-56%)inarvind1.sharma@citi.comthe4Wmarket,asWulingandMitsubishistartedproductdeliveriesinOct.ArifumiYoshidaAC+81-3-6776-4610IndiaandIndonesiarepresentasolidgrowthopportunity—TheyareSouth/a

5、rifumi.yoshida@citi.comSouthEastAsia’slargestandmostdynamicautomarkets.PVpenetrationper100peopleismodest–around2.5%/4.0%inIndia/Indonesiarespectively,vs.almostFerryWong,CFAAC10%inChina.Growthoverthenextthreeyearsisalsoforecastataveryhealthy+62-21-2924-921311%/~9%CAGRsforIndia/Indones

6、ia.Thiscomparesfavorablywiththec7%ferry.wong@citi.comCAGRforecastinChina,and~2%globalautosalesgrowth.BothmarketsareastrongholdforJapaneseOEMs—IndonesiaandIndiaaredominatedbyJapaneseOEMs.PerFourin,Indiaisaround6%ofsalesforJapaneseOEMs,whilstIndonesiaisaround4%.AlthoughIndonesiaisamuc

7、hsmallermarketthanIndia,theJapanesedominatethemarket(~94%share)vs.the~65%sharetheyhaveinIndia.Rightnow,though,Indiahasbetterprospects—Indiaisaheadnotjustduetobettergrowth,butalsoduetopremiumisation.InIndia,carsarebecominglarger,movingfrom800ccenginesto1/1.2lengines.Sedansarealsoshif

8、tingtocompactandsmall-sizeSUVs.InIndonesia,thereisadowntickinmix,especiallyaftertheadventofLCGCs(4oftop10modelsfromthissegment),representingaround23%ofPVsalesfor1H17.Figure1.AverageAgeofCarFleetinIndiaFigure2.AverageAgeofFleetinIndonesia108.1years7.7years987656.1years43Averageageinye

9、arsforcarOEM