汇丰银行-全球-宏观经济-全球经济2018q1：来自不平等的挑战

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1、ECONOMICSGLOBALQ12018By:JanetHenryandJamesPomeroyhttps://www.research.hsbc.comGlobalEconomicsTheinequalitychallengeGlobalgrowthisbetterbutinequalityisnotEconomicallyandpoliticallythisneedstobeaddressedGovernmentpolicyshiftsunderwayintheUSandChinawillb

2、efeltgloballyPlayinterviewwithJanetHenryDisclaimer&Disclosures:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitECONOMICS●GLOBALQ12018ExecutivesummaryIt’sgettingbetter…M

3、iFIDII–ResearchIsyouraccessagreed?2018marksthetenthanniversaryoftheglobalfinancialcrisisandthestartofthegreatrecession.CONTACTustodayOnourforecasts,itisalsoexpectedtobethesecondyearofthestrongestglobalgrowthsincetheimmediatepost-crisisbounceof2010.Thi

4、sisexcellentnewsasfarasitgoes,butinfacttheGlobalgrowthcontinuestolegacyofthecrisispersistsinmanyways–intheformofcontinuedmonetarystimulusvirtuallyimproveeverywhere,intheexuberanceofpropertyandfinancialmarkets(adirectconsequenceofquantitativeeasing),in

5、theriseofincomeinequalityandthegrowthofpopulism.…butnotforeveryone…MostoftheremainingchallengesfacingtheglobaleconomycannotbeaddressedbymonetaryGovernmentpolicyispolicy.Futuregrowthpotentialandtheriskofashifttomorepoliticalextremeswilldependonneeded,n

6、otmonetarypolicyincumbentgovernments’abilitytoaddressoneofthemostpressingpoliticalissues–howtoensurethatthebenefitsofgrowtharewidelysharedandthatincomeinequalitywithintheircountriesisreduced.Inotherwords,howtodelivermoreinclusivegrowth.Sincetheendofth

7、egreatrecessiontherehasclearlybeenagrowingpolarisationoflabourLowwagegrowthandhighincomesandhouseholdwealthwithinmajoradvancedeconomies,whichshowedfewsignsofassetpricegrowthworseninequalitynarrowingevenagainstthemorerobustgrowthbackdropof2017.Wagegrow

8、thoflower-skilled,lower-paidworkers,especiallythosewithflexibleworkingarrangements,remainsweakerthaninmorehighlyskilledjobs.Norhavelowerincomehouseholdssharedintheheftyassetpricegainsthatcontinuedthrough2017and,tomakemattersworse,thehigherhead