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1、TestimonyAssessingNorthKorea’sChemicalandBiologicalWeaponsCapabilitiesandPrioritizingCountermeasuresJohnV.ParachiniCT-486TestimonypresentedbeforetheHouseForeignAffairsCommittee,SubcommitteeonTerrorism,NonproliferationandTrade,andtheSubcommitteeonAsiaandthePacificonJanuary
2、17,2018.AssessingNorthKorea’sChemicalandBiologicalWeaponsCapabilitiesandPrioritizingCountermeasures1TestimonyofJohnV.Parachini2TheRANDCorporationBeforetheCommitteeonForeignAffairsSubcommitteeonTerrorism,NonproliferationandTradeandtheSubcommitteeonAsiaandthePacificUnitedSt
3、atesHouseofRepresentativesJanuary17,2018nyconflictontheKoreanpeninsulacouldentailtheuseofchemicalorbiologicalAweapons(CBW),includingaconflictshortofanuclearexchange.Forthisreason,itisimportantnottoletattentiontonuclearweaponscauseustooverlooktheseotherpotentiallylethalthr
4、eats,toassesstheextenttowhichNorthKoreamayhavethesecapabilities,andevaluatethethreattheymaypose.Inaddition,theuseofCBWcouldeasilyescalateaconflicttothenuclearlevel.However,itisimportanttonotexaggeratethethreatthatCBWpresent.Inoneoftheheavilyarmedregionsoftheworld,underest
5、imationoroverestimationofathreatcanskewpreciousresourcesandleadershiptimeonewayoranother,andprioritizingthethreatsofdifferentweaponscategoriesisessential.Clearly,nuclearweaponsareourgreatestconcern,butcalibratinghowCBWandconventionalweaponsfactorintothecurrentmilitarystan
6、dofforraisethethreatofwarismoreimportanttodaythanithasbeensincetheendoftheKoreanWar.InformationaboutNorthKorea’sCBWcapabilityisincomplete.Whatinformationisavailablehaschangedovertheyearsandhascomefromvarioussources,someofwhichareindirectanddifficulttovalidateandareshroude
7、dbytheNorthKoreans’skillatdenialanddeception.TherearesomeparallelswithwhatweknewaboutIraq’sweaponsofmass1Theopinionsandconclusionsexpressedinthistestimonyaretheauthor’saloneandshouldnotbeinterpretedasrepresentingthoseoftheRANDCorporationoranyofthesponsorsofitsresearch.2Th
8、eRANDCorporationisaresearchorganizationthatdevelopssolutionstopublicpolicychallengestohelpmakeco
