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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinaHealthcare29June2017HealthCareHealthCareForecastChangeJackHu,PhDLincYiuMonthlydatatracker:June2017ResearchAnalystResearchAssociate(+852)22036208(+852)22036248jack.hu@db.comlinc.yiu@db.comMonthlydatatracker:June2017KeyChangesRecent
2、datasuggestthat:1)drugconsumptionregistered11.7%YoYgrowthCompanyTargetPriceRatinginYTD5m17vs.12%in2016;2)inpatientandoutpatienttrafficgrew4.0%and1530.HK11.50to-1.0%,respectivelyinYTDApr17;3)governmentspendinggrowthinhealth13.00(HKD)careacceleratedto19%YoYinYTD5m17,vs.10%in2016;4)the
3、pricesof6-1349.HK9.00to7.70(HKD)-APAand7-ACAreboundedinJune;5)TCMrawmaterialpricemovement1066.HK6.40to7.00(HKD)-remainedfixed;6)cornpriceincreasedtoRMB1,700/toninJune;and7)Source:DeutscheBankdomesticVitaminCpricesremainedhighwithASPofRMB70/kg,andtheexportVitaminCpricejumped9%.Toppic
4、ksChinaBiologicProductsBuyGovernmentspending,drugconsumption,patienttraffic,andinsurance(CBPO.OQ),USD112.33Governmentspendinggrowthinhealthcareincreasedto12%YoYinMayHengruiMedicine(600276.SS),CNY50.12Buy2017(atRMB131bn);YTD5m17growthwas19%,vs.10%YoYin2016.UniversalMedical(2666.HK),H
5、KD6.27BuyMeanwhile,drugconsumptiongrowthfluctuatedandrecorded14%YoYinSource:DeutscheBankMay2017;YTD5m17growthwas11.7%,vs.12.0%in2016and14.2%YoYin2015.Inpatienttrafficcontinuedtooutpaceoutpatientflow,withtheformerregisteringYoYgrowthof4.0%andthelatter1.0%inYTDApr17.Forurbanbasicmedic
6、alinsurance,inflowgrewby42%inApril,whileoutflowincreasedby28%.Forcommercialinsurance,theinflowofhealthcareinsuranceexperienceditsfirstdeclinesince2012,recording-12%YoYinMay2017,whileoutflowofhealthcareinsurancecontinuedtogrowat26%YoYinMay.However,onanYTDbasis,inflowstillgrewby17%vs.
7、23%foroutflow.6-APAand7-ACApricesreboundedinJuneThepriceof6-APAincreased17%toRMB190/kginJune2017.ASPof7-ACApickedupby43%fromthepreviousmonthatRMB480/kg.DespitetheASPincreasefor7-ACA,itisstillsignificantlylowerthanthepeakofRMB630/kginJune2015.TCMrawmaterialpricesweremixedTheTCMrawmat
8、erialpriceindexcont