德意志银行-中国宏观图表-20170731-deutschebank-chinamacroincharts(cmic)-22页

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1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEconomicsSpecialReportDate31July2017ZhiweiZhang,PhDChiefEconomistChinaMacroinCharts(CMiC)(+852)22038308zhiwei.zhang@db.comTherisktoourH2growthoutlookhasshiftedtotheupside.HighfrequencydatasuggestslandsupplyandauctionsremainedhotinJuly.AsweChinaMacroinCharts(CMiC)is

2、highlightedinthelastissueofCMiC,thestronglandsaleswillleadtoaacomprehensivechartpackpositivefiscalshockinH2.Consistentwiththisresumedboominthethatcoversfourbroadthemes:property/landmarket,financialleverageroseinJuneafterdroppinginearlier(1)economicactivitiesandpricemonths.Meanwhile,capitalo

3、utflowsseemtohavepickedup.development;(2)monetaryandThelandmarketcontinuestoboominJulycapitalmarketdevelopment;(3)trade,capitalflows,andRMBHighfrequencydataindicatebothlandsupplyandauctionsremainedstronginexchangerate;and(4)fiscalJuly.Thevolumeoflandsupplysurgedby15.6%yoy3mmainJuly,upfromde

4、velopment.9.7%inJuneand-4.6%inMay(FC1).ThevalueofaverageweeklylandauctionsrosetoRMB162.7bninJulyfrom155.2bninJuneand92.1bninMayItnotonlyhighlightskeymacro(FC2).Landauctionpremiumsuggeststhemostpopularlandmarketsareineconomicdevelopmentsinthetoptier2andsatellitetier3cities(FC3).Fordefinition

5、ofauctionpremiumandmonth,butalsoprovidestheclassificationofcitytierspleaserefertoourreportsChina’spropertyregularupdatesonin-depthbubbleandChinapropertybubbleseries:Updateontier-3cities.researchinourpreviousThemarketconsensusexpectsChina’sgrowthtoslowslightlyinH2.Thathaspublications.alsobee

6、nourbaselineforecast,butweseerisingrisksontheupside.Withthelandmarketthisstrong,thefiscalrevenueinH2willstrengthenandsupportinfrastructurespending.Therisinglandpriceswillalsopushuppropertypricesparticularlyinsometier3cities.Thewealtheffectwillhelpdiscretionaryconsumption.Theboominglandmarke

7、tispositivefortheeconomyinH2butposesmacrorisksinthenextfewyears.Webelievethepropertybubbleisdrivenbyliquidityandcreditratherthanproductivitygrowth.TheChinesegovernmentalsomentionedtheriskofpropertybubbleinthelatestPolitburomeetingonJuly24.Itwouldbechalle