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1、DeutscheBankAvisualguidetotheJulyFOMCstatementBrettRyanSeniorUSEconomistbrett.ryan@db.com(212)250-6294July2017DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.Distributedon:26/07/201720:36:22GMT0bed7b6cf11c“Thelabormarkethascon
2、tinuedtostrengthen…Jobgainshavebeensolid,onaverage,sincethebeginningoftheyear,andtheunemploymentratehasdeclined”Source:BLS,HaverAnalytics&DBUSEconomicsResearchDeutscheBankBrettRyan,+1(212)250-6294,brett.ryan@db.com1July2017“…economicactivityhasbeenrisin
3、gmoderatelysofarthisyear”Source:BEA,NewYorkFed,AtlantaFed,HaverAnalytics&DBUSEconomicsResearchDeutscheBankBrettRyan,+1(212)250-6294,brett.ryan@db.com2July20177/27/2017“Householdspending(has)continuedtoexpand”%q/q,ARRealpersonalconsumptionexpenditure%q/q
4、,AR7.57.55.0Q2tracking5.0estimate2.52.50.00.0-2.5-2.5-5.0-5.09500051015Source:BEA,HaverAnalytics&DBUSEconomicsResearchDeutscheBankBrettRyan,+1(212)250-6294,brett.ryan@db.com3July2017“…businessfixedinvestment(has)continuedtoexpand.”Source:Census,PHLFRB,H
5、averAnalytics&DBUSEconomicsResearchDeutscheBankBrettRyan,+1(212)250-6294,brett.ryan@db.com4July2017“…overallinflationandthemeasureexcludingenergyandfoodpriceshavedeclinedandarerunningbelow2percent”Source:BEA,HaverAnalytics,DBUSEconomicsResearchDeutscheB
6、ankBrettRyan,+1(212)250-6294,brett.ryan@db.com5July2017“Market-basedmeasuresofinflationcompensationremainlow;survey-basedmeasuresoflonger-terminflationexpectationsarelittlechanged”Source:BloombergFinanceLP,FRBNewYork,UniversityofMichigan,HaverAnalytics&
7、DBUSEconomicsResearchDeutscheBankBrettRyan,+1(212)250-6294,brett.ryan@db.com6July2017“…economicactivitywillexpandatamoderatepace”Source:BEA,CBO,HaverAnalytics&DBUSEconomicsResearchDeutscheBankBrettRyan,+1(212)250-6294,brett.ryan@db.com7July2017“Labormar
8、ketconditionswillstrengthensomewhatfurther”Source:BLS,HaverAnalytics&DBUSEconomicsResearchDeutscheBankBrettRyan,+1(212)250-6294,brett.ryan@db.com8July2017“…inflationisexpectedtoremainsomewhatbelow2%intheneartermbuttostabilizearou
