德银-中国-制造业-建筑机械质量增长快于数量-20171102-deutsche_bank-construction_machineryquality_growth_ahead_instead_of_quantity

《德银-中国-制造业-建筑机械质量增长快于数量-20171102-deutsche_bank-construction_machineryquality_growth_ahead_instead_of_quantity》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、ConstructionMachineryDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina2November2017ConstructionIndustrialsManufacturingMachineryRecommendationChangeQualitygrowthaheadinsteadofquantityFeiSun,CFANottoolateinthecycle;expectqualitygrowthin2018ResearchAnalystConstructionmachinerysalesbotto

2、medoutin3Q16andhavebeengrowingrapidly,drivenmainlybydemandfrominfrastructureprojectsandreplacement+852-22036130orders.WeidentifythekeydriversofconstructionmachinerydemandandourVincentHa,CFAtop-downanalysissuggeststheindustrywilldelivermoderategrowthnextyear.ResearchAnalystZoomlionwou

3、ldhaverelativelygreateroperatingleverageasthesectorcontinues+852-22036247torecover,andwebelievethevaluationgapbetweenLonkingandZoomlionwillnarrow.WeupgradeZoomliontoBuy,asweexpectanearningsreboundinYukiLuFY18-19andassetqualitytoimprove(lessbaddebtprovision).WemaintainaResearchAssocia

4、teHoldonLonkingasthepositives,suchastheabilitytogainmarketshareand+852-22035925expandmargins,arealreadyfactoredintoitsshareprice.KeyChangesBetter-than-expecteddemandwithbalancedsupplyCompanyTargetPriceRatingAccordingtoChinaConstructionMachineryAssociation(CCMA),excavator/1157.HK3.89t

5、o4.80HoldtoBuywheelloader/truckcranesalesvolumesurged100%/45%/122%in9M17amid3339.HK2.05to3.60-robustreplacementandinfrastructuredemand.UnliketheoversupplyintheSource:DeutscheBankpreviousdown-cycle,constructionmachinerysupplywasbalancedthistime.ThisToppicksisbecause,unlikein2011,fewer

6、individualcontractorshaveenteredtheindustry,Zoomlion(1157.HK),HKD3.81Buyallowingmorerationalmarketcompetition.Besidesthis,producers'creditsalesSource:DeutscheBanktermshavebecomemuchmoreconservative.CompaniesfeaturedZoomlion(1157.HK),HKD3.81BuyTop-downanalysissuggestsstablegrowthahead

7、2016A2017E2018EOurtop-downanalysisindicatesthatdownstreamdemandislikelytoremainP/E(x)–15.522.8robustin2018E.WeexpecthealthyinfrastructureprojectandmininginvestmentEV/EBITDA(x)106.8–16.1growthtocontinuewhilerealestateinvestmentgrowthwillbestable.WeforecastPrice/book(x)0.60.70.6salesof

8、excavators/w