巴克莱-美股-农业综合企业-美国9月有关农产品定价、需求和贸易数据的主要事件和趋势-2017.9.12-barclays-americas agribusiness bbq - ben s beef quotes sept. 2017

《巴克莱-美股-农业综合企业-美国9月有关农产品定价、需求和贸易数据的主要事件和趋势-2017.9.12-barclays-americas agribusiness bbq - ben s beef quotes sept. 2017》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、EquityResearch12September2017AmericasAgribusinessINDUSTRYUPDATEBBQ–Ben’sBeefQuotes:Sept.2017AmericasAgribusinessNEUTRALDearreader,welcometoourSept.editionof“BBQ–Ben’sBeefQuotes”,inwhichweUnchangedhighlightimportantnewsandmajortrendsinagri-productpricing,demandandtraded

2、ata.Weincludeeggs,poultry,pork,plussomelambandveal–it’snotallbeef!AmericasAgribusinessBenjaminM.TheurerNews+525552413322AugustdataforBrazilianchickenexportswasstrongerthanexpected.ABPAbenjamin.theurer@barclays.comreportedAugustasarecoverymonth,up14.6%annually.Itexpects

3、thegrowthpacetoBBMX,Mexicocontinueandtosurpass2016’stotalexportsof4.3mntonnes.AntonioHernandez+525552413323Chinainitiatedananti-dumpinginvestigationofBrazil’simportedchicken.Brazilwasantonio.hernandez@barclays.comaccusedofsellingchickenbelowmarketvalue.Ifapenaltyischar

4、gedonthechickenBBMX,Mexicoimports,worth~US$1bnperyear,itcouldbeanotherhittotheBrazilianmeatindustry.Prices&FeedIndustryandmarkettrendsremainhealthyandcommoditypricesremainrelativelystable.However,growinguncertaintiescontinuetomoveexpectationsonthesecommodityforwardcur

5、ves.Productionandslaughteraregrowingandfeedcostsremainbalanced.Marketconditionsanddemand,bothdomesticandinternationally,continuetosignalstronggrowthahead,inourview.Pricesaretrendingnearorabove2016yetconsumerdemandremainsstrong.Anddespiteongoingsupplyincreases,itappea

6、rsthatconsumersarewillingtopaymoreformeat.Therefore,wekeepaneyeonoverallpriceperformanceahead.Trade&USDAWecontinuetobelieveU.S.hasasolidpositionintermsofexports…DuringJuly,poultryexportsrose10%andredmeatexportsgrew11%YoY.…butoureyesarestillonNAFTA.Mexicocontinuestobe

7、animportanttrademarketfortheU.S.andanychange/restrictionontheongoingrenegotiationscouldhavenegativeimplicationforU.S.farmersandprocessors.Consumptionoutlookremainspositive.ThelatestUSDAestimatesfor2017and2018poultryandredmeatpercapitaconsumptionstandat216.6mnlbs.and21

8、9.6mnlbs.,respectively,bothwellabovethereported214.6mnlbs.levelin2016.OurStocksWeremainOverweightonTSNandHRLandEqualW