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1、COREAmericasAgribusinessBBQ–Ben’sBeefQuotes:Nov.2018InourNovembereditionof“BBQ–Ben’sBeefQuotes”,welookintothechangingtradeagreementsonaglobalscaleandBraziliangovernment’snewpolicyforINDUSTRYUPDATEAmericasAgribusinessNEUTRALUnchangedEquityResearch16November2018meatpackingcompani
2、esfollowingthe“WeakFlesh”operationrepercussions.Asinthepastwehighlightimportantnews,majortrendsinagri-productpricing,demandandtradedata.Weincludeeggs,poultry,pork,somelambandveal–it’snotallbeef!NewsRussia’sdecisiontoreinstateBrazilianbeefandporkimportsfollowingan11-monthbancouldb
3、oostBrazil’sporkexportsby20,000tonnesin2018.Braziliangovernmentconductedunannouncedauditsin15meatpackingplants.Theunscheduledinspectionsarepartofanewpolicyforthecountrytoguaranteequality.Prices&Feed·Wecontinuetoseemixedandpressuredindustryandmarkettrends;generaltrendsinmeatprices
4、,demandandtradearemixedandhavebeenvariouslymovingmonthtomonth;whichmakesuscautiousahead.·Meatproductionwasoverallmixed,postingpositivegrowthinpoultrybutcontractingintermsofredmeat.Lowerslaughterratesdrovereductionsinbothbeefandporkproduction.WhileSeptembereggproductionandchickhat
5、chingsgrew,earlyNovemberplacementsandeggsettingspostedflattishgrowth.·Pricesremainmixedyetoverallpressuredwhilefeedratiosarerelativelystable.Overallflattishy/ygrowthinpricesremainsatrendacrossmostmeatproducts.Trade&USDA·Post-electionresults,thenewtradeagreementissubjecttochangesr
6、equestedbyDemocrats…theDemocraticwinhasledtotalksoffurtherimprovementstothedeal,especiallywhenconsideringtheongoingUS-Chinatradereform.·…thestabilityfromreachingfinalnegotiationsamongthethreecountrieswasshort-livedinthemarkets.Weremaincautiousoftheongoingpressuresanduncertainties
7、beforethenewUSMCAdealissigned.·Meatavailabilitycontinuestobeseenhigher,thoughtoasmallerdegreethanpreviouslyestimated.USDAnowestimatesfor2018and2019poultryandredmeatpercapitaavailabilityat219.0mnlbs.and223.6mnlbs.,respectively.OurStocksWeremainOWonTSN,PPC,JBSandBRFS;EWonHRLandSAFM
8、andUWonMRFG.BarclaysCapitalInc.and/orone
