evercore isi-全球-石油行业-原油：真理时刻

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1、EnergyCommoditiesOctober17,2017DougTerreson,CFACrudeOil:TheMomentofTruth251-928-6440Doug.Terreson@evercoreisi.comConstructiveCrudeOilOutlookSiobanHickieDemandremainshealthyandfurtherpositiverevisionsarelikely.OPECisdelivering212-446-9429onitspledgetocutoutputandglobalinvento

2、riesaredeclining.WemaintainourBrentSioban.Hickie@evercoreisi.comforecastof$55and$60/bblin2017and2018.ChaiZhao,CFA646-321-3097RobustOilDemandGrowthChai.Zhao@evercoreisi.comGlobalGDPremainshealthyandfuelpricesareaffordable.Theoutlookforoildemandgrowthispositiveandwemaintainour

3、above-consensusforecastof1.6and1.5MMBPDin2017and2018.WHAT'sNEW(MMBPD)OldNewSupplySideRecovery2017DemandGrowthEvercoreISI1.641.56USshaleoutputwillincreaseby0.5and1.0MMBPDduring2017-2018,inourview.IEA1.611.58Thedrivers:drillingactivitywilldoublebutproductivitywilldecline,asith

4、assinceEIA1.351.35August2016.InOPEC,complianceremainspositiveandtheoutputplanislikelytoOPEC1.421.45beextendedthrumid-year2018.Globaloilsupplygrowthwillbenear0.5and1.5MMBPDin2017and2018.2017SupplyGrowthFundamentalGainsToContinueEvercoreISI0.500.50EIA1.070.76Globaloilinventori

5、esarefallingandthepacewillriseincomingquarters.Globalinventorieswilldeclineby0.5and2.1daysin2017and2018andapproximate42.82017Non-OPECSupplyGrowthand40.7daysin2017and2018.Inventoriesattheselevelsandrising“break-evens”EvercoreISI0.890.87oninvestmentimplyBrentpricesof$60and$65/

6、bblbyYE2017and2018.HigherIEA0.830.77oilpricesareahead,inourview.EIA1.270.95OPEC0.950.84TheMomentofTruthCorporatestrategiesandCEOpayincentivesemphasizereserveandproduction2018DemandGrowthgrowthdespitezerocorrelationwithTSR(5&10yrs.).EPS,ROCEandFCFholdEvercoreISI1.501.50substa

7、ntiallyhighercorrelationsbutemphasisremainsscarce.TheFallstrategyandIEA1.371.41CEOpaycycle(Oct-Nov)providestheopportunitytoalignwithshareholderinterests.EIA1.691.58Companieswhichre-employgrowthattheexpenseofreturnsstrategiesthathavenotOPEC1.351.39servedshareholders,willexper

8、iencefurtherdeteriorationininvestorsponsorship,inourview.Investorsarewatchi