2017-2018年假日零售通讯：假日零售回顾与2018展望

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1、Issue5

2、2017−2018BAINRETAILHOLIDAYNEWSLETTERPOST-HOLIDAYRECAPANDRESOLUTIONSFOR2018ByAaronCheris,DarrellRigbyandSuzanneTagerRetailsalesthisholidayseasonroseanimpressive5.6%,farabovemostpredictions.Thebiggestsurprisecamefromin-storesales.Theygrewat4.3%,morethan2perce

3、ntagepointshigherthanlastyear.E-commercewasalsostrong,withsalesthroughmobiledevicesandonAmazon.comdrivingmuchofthegrowth.Andtherewasmoregoodnews:lowertaxratesonincomeandforeign-cashrepatriation.Whatshouldretailersdowiththefundsproducedbyrecordsalesandtaxbreaks?Don

4、’tbecomplacent.Instead,investtoturnshort-termgiftsintosustainabletrends.Inthisissue,wesharesixresolutionsforhowretailerscancarrytheirmomentuminto2018andbeyond.RecappinganexceptionalholidayseasonThisseasonwastrulyagifttomanyretailers.Asconsumersjoyfullyunwrappednew

5、sweaters,homegoodsandhigh-endsmartphones,manyretailerswerealsocelebrating.PreliminaryestimatesindicatethatBain-definedretailsales(seeExhibit1intheAppendix)grewatanimpressive5.6%thisholidayseason,thehighestgrowthratesince2014(seeFigure1).E-commercesawrobustdouble-d

6、igitgrowthagainthisyear.Buttherealsurprisewasin-storesales.In-storesales—whichaccountformorethan80%oftotalsales—hadanunexpectedlystrongseason,upmorethan2percentagepointsoverlastyear.Infairness,asmoreandmorepurchasesaremadethroughmultiplechannels,it’sincreasinglydi

7、fficulttoclassifysalesas“in-store”or“e-commerce.”Forexample,Figure1:Growthinholidayomnichannelsales,2001–2017Holidayseasonsalesgrowth7.5%Holidaysalesgrewanestimated5.6%5-year5.0average=3.6%10-yearaverage=2.6%2.50.0−2.5−5.0200102030405060708091011121314151617Nonsto

8、resales(e-commerceandmailorder)In-storesalesNotes:December2017isanadvanceestimate;holidayseasonisNovemberandDecember;growthratesarebasedonthemostcomparabledataavailableatthetime;2017growthratesareBainsestimatesSources:USCensusBureau;Bainanalysishowdoyoucategorizet

9、hesaleofajacketdiscoveredonawebsite,researchedonamobileappandthenpur-chasedorpickedupinastore?Conventionalwaysofclassifyingsalesdon’taccountforthiscompl