【高力国际】2010年度市场观察

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1、MarketUpdateMar2010市场观察2010年3月Highlights市场要点•Asthetighteningmeasuresfilteredthrough,coupledwith•由于楼市从紧政策的影响逐渐呈现，加之新增供应不足及季lackofnewsupplyandtheCNYholiday,theoverall节因素，2-3月房地产市场成交保持平淡，而价格保持坚挺。residentialmarketremainedquietinFebruaryandMarch,butpricesheldfirm.•Withaviewtoreininginhighlandprice

2、s,morestringent•为抑制高地价，政府针对土地竞拍颁布了更为严格的措施，requirementsonlandbiddingwerestipulated,and78SOEs勒令78家央企退出房地产经营。即便如此，土地市场的火爆wereorderedtowithdrawfromrealestatebusiness.Yet程度似乎并未缓解，近期杭州又成交一幅高价地块。buyingfrenzyinthelandmarketseemsnotabated,asreflectedbythehighlandpriceattainedinrecentlandsalesinHangzho

3、u.•Therewasnomajoren-bloctransactionclosedinMarchin•3月上海投资市场未有整售交易达成。办公楼物业的投资需Shanghai’sinvestmentsalemarket.Acquisitioninterestfor求正逐步上升。officepropertiesissteppingup.RESIDENTIALMARKET住宅市场Transactionsintheoverallresidentialmarketwerelackluster受楼市调控及中国新年假期影响，加之新增供应不足，2-3inFebruaryandMarchamids

4、tthegovernment’stightening月间整体住宅市场成交低迷。尽管如此，许多开发商由于资measures,coupledwithlackofnewsupplyandalsodueto金充裕，并不存在降价压力，由此价格仍保持坚挺。国内四theCNYholiday.Nevertheless,pricesheldfirmasmost大开发商2月份销售面积出现大幅下跌，销售情况也基本与developershadnopressuretolowerpricesduetoimprovedbalancesheetandafavourablecashflowposition.Sal

5、es整体市场趋势相似。70个大中城市房屋价格指数同比继续扩situationoftopfourdomesticdevelopersalsoboreoutsimilar大，上涨10.7％，环比上升0.9％。迄今为止楼市调控主要trend,withsalesareadroppedsharplyinFebruary.The体现在成交量的下滑，如果从紧政策深化，房价将面临更多residentialpriceindexin70middle-sizedtolargecities下行压力。surgedfurtherinFebruary,by10.7%Y-o-Y,andup0.9%M-o-M.H

6、itherto,marketadjustmentismainlyreflectedinafallinsalesvolume.Shouldthetighteningmeasuresdeepen,therewouldbemoredownwardpressureonprices.Followingthetighteningonmortgageinterestrateforbuyers继二套房贷利率收紧后，上海一些商业银行对首套房贷也进ofsecondproperty,somecommercialbanksinShanghai一步收紧，包括中国银行、工商银行在内的多间银行将首套alsot

7、ightenedthetermsofmortgageloanforfirst-timehome房首付比例由两成上调至三成，市场上观望情绪更有加剧之buyers.Manybanks,includingBankofChinaandICBC,势。受此影响，2月上海住宅市场成交大幅回落，较1月下降raisedthedownpaymentforpurchasingthefirstpropertyfrom20%to30%,thusintensifyingthewait-and-see52％，