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1、SpringerTextsinStatisticsSeriesEditors:G.CasellaS.FienbergI.OlkinForothertitlespublishedinthisseries,gotohttp://www.springer.com/series/417PeterD.HoffAFirstCourseinBayesianStatisticalMethods123PeterD.HoffDepartmentofStatisticsUniversityofWashingtonSeattleWA9
2、8195-4322USAhoff@stat.washington.eduISSN1431-875XISBN978-0-387-92299-7e-ISBN978-0-387-92407-6DOI10.1007/978-0-387-92407-6SpringerDordrechtHeidelbergLondonNewYorkLibraryofCongressControlNumber:2009929120cSpringerScience+BusinessMedia,LLC2009Allrightsreserved
3、.Thisworkmaynotbetranslatedorcopiedinwholeorinpartwithoutthewrittenpermissionofthepublisher(SpringerScience+BusinessMedia,LLC,233SpringStreet,NewYork,NY10013,USA),exceptforbriefexcerptsinconnectionwithreviewsorscholarlyanalysis.Useinconnectionwithanyformofin
4、formationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdevelopedisforbidden.Theuseinthispublicationoftradenames,trademarks,servicemarks,andsimilarterms,eveniftheyarenotidentifiedassuch,isnottobe
5、takenasanexpressionofopinionastowhetherornottheyaresubjecttoproprietaryrights.Printedonacid-freepaperSpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com)PrefaceThisbookoriginatedfromasetoflecturenotesforaone-quartergraduate-levelcoursetaughtattheU
6、niversityofWashington.ThepurposeofthecourseistofamiliarizethestudentswiththebasicconceptsofBayesiantheoryandtoquicklygetthemperformingtheirowndataanalysesusingBayesiancom-putationaltools.Theaudienceforthiscourseincludesnon-statisticsgraduatestudentswhodidwel
7、lintheirdepartment’sgraduate-levelintroductorystatis-ticscoursesandwhoalsohaveaninterestinstatistics.Additionally,first-andsecond-yearstatisticsgraduatestudentshavefoundthiscoursetobeausefulintroductiontostatisticalmodeling.Likethecourse,thisbookisintendedtob
8、eaself-containedandcompactintroductiontothemainconceptsofBayesiantheoryandpractice.Bytheendofthetext,readersshouldhavetheabilitytounderstandandimplementthebasictoolsofBayesianstatisticalmethodsf
