developing decision making skills for business (2000)[m e sharpe]外语英文电子书

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1、DEVELOPINGDECISION-MAKINGSKILLSFORBUSINESSThispageintentionallyleftblankDEVELOPINGDECISION-MAKINGSKILLSFORBUSINESSJulianL.SimonM.E.SharpeArmonk,NewYorkLondon,EnglandJulianL.SimonCopyright©2000byM.E.Sharpe,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproduce

2、dinanyformwithoutwrittenpermissionfromthepublisher,M.E.Sharpe,Inc.,80BusinessParkDrive,Armonk,NewYork10504.LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataSimon,JulianLincoln,1932–Developingdecision-makingskillsforbusiness/JulianL.Simon.p.cm.Includesbibliogra

3、phicalreferencesandindex.ISBN0-7656-0676-3(alk.paper)1.Decision-making.2.Corporateculture.3.Psychology,Industrial.I.Title.HD30.23.S5562001158.7—dc2100-030118PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaThepaperusedinthispublicationmeetstheminimumrequirementsofAmericanN

4、ationalStandardforInformationSciencesPermanenceofPaperforPrintedLibraryMaterials,ANSIZ39.48-1984.~BM(c)10987654321ContentsPrefaceviiOverviewofBusinessPsychologyxiPartI:Wants,Abilities,andGoals31.Tastes,Preferences,Wants,andValues52.AssessingYourResources193

5、.ChoosingGoalsandCriteriaofSuccess24PartII:IntroductiontoEvaluativeThinking294.EvaluatingSimpleAlternatives395.WeighingPresentVersusFutureBenefits(andCosts)516.HowtoThinkAboutCost647.AllowingforUncertainty748.DealingWithRisks859.ReconcilingMultipleGoals92Pa

6、rtIII:GettingUsefulIdeasandKnowledge9910.GettingandEliminatingIdeas10511.Experts,ExpertSystems,andLibraries12412.UsingScientificDisciplinetoObtainInformation13613.AssessingConsequencesandLikelihoods147PartIV:WorkingWithInformationandKnowledge16314.PitfallsT

7、hatEntrapOurThinking16515.MyFavoriteWorstSourcesofErrors1802•WHATIFCHINADOESN’TDEMOCRATIZE?16.GoodJudgment19817.Self-DisciplineandHabitsofThought20318.DealingWithPeople,andManagingThem213Index221AbouttheAuthor229PrefaceSomePersonalReflectionsonWritingThisBo

8、okNoonecouldwritewithauthorityaboutallthetopicsinabookthatrangesaswidelyasthisonedoes.Eventoattempttodosorequireschutzpah.YetIbelievetheattemptisworthmakingevenifthebookisnotwhollysuccessfulinknittingt