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1、ConcernsofProjectManagersPMTUTORIALDECISIONANALYSISINPROJECTS:MonteCarloSimulationSMJohnR.Schuyler,DecisionPrecision,Aurora,ColoradoewillcontinuethediscussionwTable1.WastewaterPlantAlternativesaboutthegoldminedevelopmentproject.AwastewaterplantisneededtoShortNameAlternative($M=$000’s)captu
2、reheavymetalsfromthemine’susedAcquireaused,skid-mountedwastewaterplantwaterdischarge.Inthelastarticle,as($650Minitialoutlay).showninFigure1(seenextpage)andSkidAcquireanew,skid-mountedplant($1480Minitialoutlay).Table1,fouralternativeswereconsid-FixedAcquireanew,fixedplant($I150Minitialoutla
3、y).eredforacquiringthewastewatertreat-EvaluateTakeonemonth($30Mexpense)toevaluatetheconditionmentfacility.andtimeneededtoreadytheused,skid-mountedplant;Thechiefuncertaintiesrecognizedinthendecidewhichplanttoacquire.thisanalysisare(1)thetimetoimple-menttheplantchoiceand(2)thelongestcompleti
4、ontimeofallotherminedevel-opmentactivities.Fixedassumptionsin-cludeitemssuchasminelife,plantEditor’sNote:Thisisthefifthtutorialinthisseriesaboutdecisionanalysis.operatingcosts,salvagevalue,anddelayWeareplanningapproximatelyteninstallments:cost(permonthimpactonminevalueofdelayingoraccelerat
5、ingstartup).DECISIONANALYSISINPROJECTSThisarticlepresentsanalternative1.ExpectedValue—TheCornerstone.Representingaprobabilitydistribu-calculationtechniquethatoffers,intionasanunbiased,singlevalue.somecases,importantadvantagesover2.OptimalDecisionPolicy.Appraisingvalueorcost:aconsistentappr
6、oachdecisiontreeanalysis.suitedtoalldecisiontypes.3.DecisionTrees.GraphicaldecisionmodelandEVcalculationtechnique.DIFFICULTIESINEXTENDING4.ValueofInformation.EvaluatinganalternativetoacquireadditionalTHETREEANALYSISinformation.Decisiontreeanalysisprovidesalogical,5.MonteCarloSimulation(thi
7、sarticle).Analternative,“populurtechniqueforcrediblebasisforthewastewaterplantde-calculatingexpectedvaluesandoutcomeprobabilitydistributions.cision.So,whyintroduceanothertech-6.OtherProbabilisticTechniques.PERTandotherprobabilitytechniquesnique?Becausesomeprob
