using economic models to evaluate policies

《using economic models to evaluate policies》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。

1、9.UsingEconomicModelstoEvaluatePoliciesSummaryEconomicmodelscanhelpinunderstandingthepotentialinteractionsandinterdependenceofaprogramwithotherexistingpoliciesandindividualbehavior.Unlikereduced-formestimations,whichfocusonaone-way,directrelationshipbetweenaprograminterve

2、ntionandultimateoutcomesforthetargetedpopulation,structuralestimationapproachesexplicitlyspecifyinterrelationshipsbetweenendogenousvari-ables(suchashouseholdoutcomes)andexogenousvariablesorfactors.Structuralapproachescanhelpcreateaschematicforinterpretingpolicyeffectsfrom

3、regressions,particularlywhenmultiplefactorsareatwork.Exanteevaluations,discussedinchapter2,alsobuildeconomicmodelsthatpredictprogramimpactsamidotherfactors.Suchevaluationscanhelpreducecostsaswellbyfocusingpolicymakersattentiononareaswhereimpactsarepotentiallygreater.Theev

4、aluationscanalsoprovideaframeworkforunderstandinghowtheprogramorpolicymightoperateinadifferenteconomicenvironmentifsomeparameters(suchasratesofreturnoncapitalorotherprices)werechanged.Thischapterpresentscasestudiesofdifferentmodelingapproachesforpredictingprogrameffectsas

5、wellasforcomparingthesepredictionswithdataonoutcomesafterprogramimplementation.LearningObjectivesAftercompletingthischapter,thereaderwillbeabletodiscuss■Differencesbetweenreduced-formandstructuralestimationframeworks■Differentmodelsforevaluatingprogramsexanteandempiricals

6、trategiestocomparetheseexantepredictionswithexpostprogramoutcomesIntroductionThusfar,thediscussioninthishandbookhasfocusedonexpost,data-drivenevalua-tionsofprograms.Often,however,programsareimplementedamidseveralotherpolicychanges,whichcanalsoaffecthowparticipantsrespond.

7、Creatingaconceptualmodel127HandbookonImpactEvaluationoftheeconomicenvironmentandchoicesofthepopulationinquestioncanhelpinunderstandingthepotentialinteractionsandinterdependenceoftheprogramwithotherfactors.Atthemacroeconomiclevel,thesefactorscanincludeothereconomicorsocial

8、policychanges(seeEssama-Nssah2005),andatthehouseholdorindividuallevel,thesefactorscanincludediff