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1、IndividualChoiceBehaviorThisisalarge,sprawlingliterature,ineconomicsandpsychology,muchofwhichisdevotedtotestingthepredictionsofdifferenttheoriesofrationalbehavior,andtodocumentingdeviationsfromthosepredictions.•Theexperimentsaremostlysimple—oftenjustcarefullycraftedquestionsabouthypothe
2、ticalchoices.Theyhavegivenrisetosomevigorousdebates,onexperimentalmethodology,ontheinterpretationoftheobservedchoicebehaviors,andontheirimplicationsforeconomics.•Oneofthechiefmethodologicaldebates—goingbackatleasttothe1931experimentofThurstoneandalong1942critiqueofitbyAllenWallisandMilt
3、onFriedman,concernstheuseofhypotheticalversusrealchoices.•Therearenowmultipleseriesofexperimentsinwhichphenomenainitiallyobservedinhypotheticalchoiceswerereproducedinexperimentalenvironmentsinwhichsubjectsmaderealchoices2Experimentalinvestigationsof“rationality”•Someoftheexperimentsarea
4、imedatthewholeunderlyingideaoftherationalitymodels,thatindividualscanbemodeledashavingpreferencesoveralternatives.•Anotherstreamofexperimentsistargetedmoredirectlyonexpectedutilitytheory•(Noteonceagainthat,ifwewerejusttryingtofalsifytheories,itwouldbeenoughtoshowthatpeopledon’talwayshav
5、epreferences;thattheyaren’talwaysexpectedutilitymaximizerswouldfollowfromthat.)3Framing:Choosingcancertreatments(McNeil,Pauker,andTversky(1988)SurvivalFrameMortalityFrame(%alive)(%dead)RadiationSurgeryRadiationSurgeryAftertreatment10090010After1year77682332After5years22347866•Percentage
6、Choosingeach(AmericanMDsandstudents):168450504So,dopeoplenothavepreferencesoveralternatives?•Ifwetakeframingveryseriously,wemightwanttoconcludethat.–E.g.youmaynothavepreferencesalternatives,youmayhavewaysofreachinganswerstoquestions,andhowthequestionisaskedmaydeterminewhatansweryouarriv
7、eat.•Butverbaldescriptionsmaybemore“frame-able”thanotherelementsofourexperience.•We’llreturntothisideatodayaftercoffee…5Preferenceswithoutrationality•Ofcourse,itmaymakesensetospeakofpreferencesinmanycontexts,buttheymaybe–Lessregularinsomedimensionsthanutilitytheorysupposes–More
