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1、1TrendsandCyclesinChina’sMacroeconomyChunChang,ShanghaiAdvancedInstituteofFinance,ShanghaiJiaoTongUniversityKaijiChen,EmoryUniversityandFederalReserveBankofAtlantaDanielF.Waggoner,FederalReserveBankofAtlantaTaoZha,FederalReserveBankofAtlanta,EmoryUniversity,andNBERChang,Ch
2、en,Waggoner,andZhaI.IntroductionGrowthhasbeenthehallmarkforChina.Inrecentyears,however,China’sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthhassloweddowncon-siderablywhilecountercyclicalgovernmentpolicyhastakencenterstage.Neverhasthischangebeenmoretruethanafterthe2008financialcrisis,when
3、thegovernmentinjectedfourtrillionRMBsintoinvestmenttocombatthesharpfallofoutputgrowth.Issuesrelatedtobothtrendandcyclearenowonthemindsofpolicymakersandeconomists.1Yetthereisaseriouslackofempiricalresearchon(a)thebasicfactsaboutthetrendsandcyclesofChina’smacroeconomyand(b)a
4、theoreticalframeworkthatiscapableofexplainingthesefacts.Thispaperservestofillthisimportantvacuumbytacklingbothoftheseissues.Thebroadgoalistopromote,amongawideresearchcommunity,empiricalstud-iesonChina’smacroeconomyanditsgovernmentpolicies.Overthepasttwoyearswehaveundertake
5、nataskofprovidingacoreofannualandquarterlymacroeconomictimeseriestobeasconsistentwiththedefinitionsofUStimeseriesaspossible,whileatthesametimemaintainingChinesedatacharacteristicsforunderstandingChina’smacroeconomy.WedevelopaneconometricmethodologytodocumentChina’strendand
6、cyclicalpatterns.Thesepatternsarecarefullycross-verifiedbystudyingdifferentfrequenciesofthedata,employingotherempiricalmethods,anddelvingintodisaggregatedtimeseriesrele-vanttoourpaper.Webuildatheoreticalframeworktoaccountfortheuniquepatternsoftrendandcyclebyintegratingthed
7、isaggregatedtimeseriesandinstitutionaldetailswithourtheoreticalmodel.Allthreeingredients—data,empiricalfacts,andtheory—constituteacentral©2016bytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.Allrightsreserved.978-0-226-39560-9/2016/2015-0101$10.00Thiscontentdownloadedfrom152.015.047.
8、133onJuly26,201602:07:11AMAllusesubjecttoUniversityofChicagoPressTermsandConditions(http:
