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1、Representativeness7andAvailabilityCornellUniversity’sbasketballteamwontheIvyLeaguechampionshipin2008,2009,and2010.Alongthewaytheteamsetseveralteamrecordsforthree-pointshooting.Inconver-sation,thebasketballcoachwasaskedabouthowhedecideswhichplayershewilluseinanyparticulargame.Heli
2、stedseveralkeyfactorssuchastheparticularmatchupswiththeopposingteam’splayers,buthealsomentionedtheimportanceofputtingintheguywhohasbeenonashootingstreakinthelastseveralgames.Whenpressed,headmittedthattherewereseveralfactorsthatcouldcontributetosuchastreakbutfeltthatifinasinglegam
3、earegularlygoodshooterwascold,hewouldsithimonthebenchinfavorofaplayerwithloweraveragepercentageshooting.Infact,manycoaches,players,andfansfeeltheycanquicklydiscernwhenaplayeriseitheronastreakorinaslumpintermsofshooting.Indealingwithriskydecisions,onemustfirstcometogripswiththeunde
4、rlyinguncer-tainty.Inotherwords,beforeonecanmakeadecisionbetweentwochoicesthatinvolveuncertainoutcomes,onemustfirstdevelopaperceptionofhowuncertaineachofthechoicesis.Thus,acoachdecidingwhichbasketballplayerstoputonthecourtwantstodeterminehowreliablehisshootersareandhowlikelyeachof
5、hisplayersaretostopkeyplayersontheotherteamfromscoring.Thecoachcannotknowbeforeplacingaplayerinagamehowthatplayerwillperform.Butthecoachcanusepreviousperformancetoformbeliefsabouthowtheplayerswillperform,thushelpingtodecidewhichwillplayandforhowlong.Scientistsoftenfindthemselvesin
6、asimilarsituationintryingtodecidewhichofseveralhypothesesmaybetrue.Beforeconductingexperiments,theycannotknowwithcertaintywhichhypothesisperformsbest.Often,scientificdataarerelativelyweak,providinglittleinformationaboutthetrueunderlyingrelationship.Inthiscaseitcanbedifficulttodeter
7、-minethecausaleffectsthatmighthavegeneratedthedata.Nonetheless,inordertopublishtheresults,itisnecessarytodrawsomeconclusionsevenfromweakdata.Thischapterdealswithhowpeopleuseavailableinformationtoformbeliefswhenfacinguncertainty.Thesebeliefsarethebasisfordecisionsregardinginvestme
8、nt,hiring,strategy,andvirtuallyeveryaspe