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1、CHAPTER41COUNTRYRISKINGLOBALFINANCIALMANAGEMENT∗ClaudeB.Erb,CFA,CampbellR.Harvey,andTadasE.ViskantaFOREWORDIfyouwereaninvestorbasedintheUnitedStatesin1969,yourportfolioprobablydidnotcontainanyforeignsecurities.AccordingtoBrinsonPartners,inthatyear,theworldwideinvestablecapitalm
2、arkettotaledtheequivalentofUS$2.3trillion,abouttwo-thirdsofwhichrestedinU.S.stocksandbonds.Therefore,asaU.S.-basedinvestor,yourfailuretodiversifyinternationallymaywellhavebeenjustifiedbythefactthatyouwerealreadyselectingfromareasonablycompletesetofsecurities.Furthermore,byremain
3、inginvestedexclusivelyindollar-denominatedequitiesissuedbycompanieswhoseproductsandservicesyouknew,youmighthaveconvincedyourselfthatyouwereavoidingthemyriadrisksthatattendoffshoreendeavors.IfyouwereaninvestorbasedintheUnitedStatesin1995,however,thissortofmyopiawasdifficulttorati
4、onalize.Bythatyear,theportionoftheUS$44.0trillionglobalcapitalmarketinvestedinU.S.stocksandbondshadshrunktobarely40percent,despiteaquartercenturyofremarkableprosperityinyourcountry.Bymaintainingastrictlydomesticportfo-lio,youfailedtotakeadvantageofalmost60percentofthesecurities
5、availabletoyou.Whattheprecedingstatisticsunderscore,ofcourse,isthattheworld’seconomyhasbecomeincreasinglydiverse.AlthoughtheascentofJapanesesecuritiesaccountedforalargepartofthedeclineinU.S.prominence,anotherfactorwasthedramaticincreaseinthisperiodofinvestmentsinemergingmarketc
6、ountries.Oneimportantby-productofthisdiversityisthepressureoninvestorsinallcountriestoexpandtheirportfoliosintopositionsthattheymaynotbecomfortableholding.What,forexample,doesthetypicalU.S.investorknowaboutthespecialrisksandopportunitiesof∗Copyright©1997TheResearchFoundationofC
7、FAInstitute.Reprintedwithpermission.583CH041.indd5838/28/108:46:03PM584PartIII:ManagingRisk—GlobalRiskinvestinginSweden?Perhapslittle,butbecauseGoldman,Sachs&Companyreportsthatinthe1986–94period,theSwedishequitymarkettoppedtheworld’slocalcurrencyper-formancerankings—andfinishedt
8、hirdonadollar-adjustedbasis—itmightbeworthwhileforthat
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