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1、RISKPERCEPTIONINPSYCHOLOGYANDECONOMICSKENNETHJ.ARROW*Theconceptofrationalityhasbeenbasictomosteconomicanalysis.Itscontenthasbeensuccessivelyrefinedoverthegenerations.Asappliedtothestaticworldofcertainty,ithasturnedouttobeaweakhypothesis,noteasilyrefutedandthereforenotveryusef
2、ulasanexplanation,thoughnotliterallyatautology.Butrecentdecadeshaveseenthedevelopmentofstrongerversionsappliedtoaworldinwhichtimeanduncertaintyarereal.Amongitsmostimportantmanifestationshavebeencriteriaforcon-sistencyinallocationovertime,theexpected-utilityhypothesisofbehav-i
3、orunderuncertainty,andwhatmaybetermedtheBayesianhypothesisforlearning,thatistheconsistentuseofconditionalprobabilitiesforchangingbeliefsonthebasisofnewinformation.Thesehypotheseshavebeenusedwidelyinofferingexplanationsofempirically-observedbehav-ior,though,asnotinfrequentlyin
4、economics,thetheoreticaldevelopmenthasgonemuchfurtherthantheempiricalimplementation.Thesehypoth-eseshavealsobeenusedincreasinglyinnormativeanalysis,asacompo-nentofbenefit-coststudies(thereforefrequentlyreferredtoasbenefit-riskstudies).Thevalueofreducingmortalityratesfromdisea
5、ses,forexample,hasbeenstudiedbyassumingthatchoiceofoccupationsismadeinteraliabycomparingwagedifferenceswithmortalitydifferences(ThalerandRosen(1976),Viscusi(1979)).Hypothesesofrationalityhavebeenunderattackforempiricalfalsityalmostaslongastheyhavebeenemployedineconomics.Thors
6、teinVeblenlongagohadsomechoicesarcasticpassagesabouttheextraordinarycalcu-latingabilitiesimputedtotheaverageindividualinhisorherdailyeco-nomiclifebyeconomists.Morerecently,HerbertSimonandhiscolleagueshaveproducedmuchevidenceofthedifficultiesofhumanbeingsinarriv-ingatrationalc
7、hoiceseveninrathersimplecontexts(forasurvey,seeSimon(1979)).Therationalityorirrationalityofchoicehasbecomealeadinginterestofthebranchofpsychologycalled“cognitivepsychology.”Thisfieldofinquirystudiesthecapacityofhumanbeingsforperceptionandjudg-ment.Inthelasttwentyyears,ithasbe
8、comeamajorfieldofpsychologicalresearch,incontrasttoearlierworkwhicht
