gs 2013 credit outlook

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1、November20,2012InvestmentGrade2013CreditOutlookCreditResearchModeratethrills,avoidthespillsThesearchforyieldhaslesstofindWearebroadlyconstructiveonIGspreadsin2013.Giventightvaluations,weforecastthatcreditreturnswillonlymodestlyexceedspreadlevels.PicksAmericanTowerLincolnNationa

2、lThisviewreflectsourgrowingcomfortwiththemainmacrosystemicrisks,BBVALloydsBostonPropertiesMacy’snamelytheUSfiscalcliffandEurope,andisdampenedbyourgrowingCanadianPacificRailwayCoMcKessonCenturyLinkMotorolaSolutionsconcernaboutidiosyncraticrisks.Inparticular,wethinkthesustainedlo

3、w-CignaNewsCorp.CitigroupOracleyieldenvironmentwilllikelycauseagradualriseinreleveragingevents.CMSEnergyInc.PernodRicardCNAFinancialPioneerNaturalResourcesButfor2013H1,weexpectthehungerforyieldtodominatesuchconcerns.CSXCorporationPPLCapitalFundingDanaherCorp.PrologisWealsothink

4、tradingliquidityissettoimprove,drivenbylowersystemicDDRRocheDeltaAirLines6.821s(2007-1A)RoyalBankofScotlandriskintheEuroareaandcheapercostoffundingbybanks.DomtarCorp.TextronInc.DoricNimrodAirFinanceAlphaUnitedTechnologiesCorp.EastmanChemicalUnitedHealthFordMotorCompanyVirginMed

5、iaTheremainingpocketsofvalue:BBB7-10-yearandfinancialsFordMotorCreditCompanyWalgreenFreeport-McMoRanXLGroupGileadThecompressionofIGspreadsleavesinvestorswiththreedimensionsPansalongwhichtheycanmodifyriskexposures:movelowerinrating,addriskADTCorp.HumanaAllstateJerseyCentralandLi

6、ghtCoinfinancials,andtarget“widespread”durationbuckets.WethinktheAstraZenecaJohnsonControlsInc.AT&TInc.Kellogg“upperbelly”oftheBBBcurve(7-10yearmaturity)offersthebestvalue.CapitalOneKrogerChubbMedtronicConsolidatedEdisonCo.ofNewYorkNaborsIndustriesCreditSuisseNorfolkSouthernCor

7、porationCoverageViewsDellNorthropGrummanCorp.DeltaAirLines7.75s(2009-1A)NucorCorp.WeareAttractiveonInsurance,Metals&Mining,andREITs.ForDeutscheBankPitneyBowesDukeRealtyPotashInsurance,weexpectthatLifeinsurerswillhaveadjustedtothelowrateEliLillyRaytheonCompanyEquityResidentialSa

8、fewayenvironmentbyearly2013,andthatP&Cinsurerswillbene