Barclays_Residential_Credit_Outlook_2013_A_sustainable_recovery

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1、SECURITISEDPRODUCTSRESEARCH

2、RESIDENTIALCREDITOUTLOOK201319November2012AsustainablerecoverySandeepBordiaOverallpositioning+12124122099Weremainconstructiveonnon-agenciesandcontinuetofindthemcheaperthansandeep.bordia@barclays.comotherriskyassets.WhiletheH212priceincreasehasbeendrivenmostl

3、ybyrisk-premiumtightening,ithasalsobeenaccompaniedbyanimprovementinhousingandJasrajVaidyacreditfundamentals.+12124122099jasraj.vaidya@barclays.comOurtoprecommendationremainsbeinglongsaferjumbo/alt-AFRMSSNRs.Inweakercredits,wefavoroptionARM/alt-Ahybridsversussubprime.DennisLeeThemajorr

4、iskstoourviewcomefromexternalevents–especiallyfromthestill+12124122099volatilesituationinEuropeandtheriskthattheUS‘fiscalcliff’isnotaverted(atleastdennis.lee2@barclays.comtemporarily).Botheventswouldlikelyleadinvestorstoshedriskandtoapullbackintherisk-premiumtighteningrallythatwehavesee

5、nrecently.RobertTayon+12124122512Housingrobert.tayon@barclays.comWebelievethathomepricesreachedasustainablebottominQ112.Weexpectaggregatepricestorise5.5%in2012and4%in2013,followedby3-4%perannumHarkaranTalwarin2014andbeyond.Moneyraisedtoinvestindistressedpropertiesisapositive+1212412209

6、9technicalandmayfrontloadtherecoveryincertainareas.harkaran.talwar@barclays.comHousingdemandhasexceedednewsupplyinthepastfewyears,reducingexcessTejvanshThakralsupplypressuresmeaningfullyinmanyregions.Weareparticularlyoptimisticon+12124122099pricesinareaswherehomesaretradingbelowreplace

7、mentvaluesandhouseholdtejvansh.thakral@barclays.comformationispositive.Inourview,Atlanta,LasVegas,Phoenix,andTampastandoutasthemostattractivefundamentally,followedbyDallasandCharlotte.Chicago,ClevelandandDetroithavedecentrentalyieldsbutmayprovidefewerexitstoinvestors.Mortgagecreditperf

8、ormanceTherecentpickupinthepaceofimprovementincurrenttodelinquentrollsislikelytocontinue.Voluntaryprepaymentswilllikelyremaintepidin2013butcanprovideincrementalupsideinweakercreditlongercashflowsifcreditavailabilityimprovessubstantially.Despiteseveritiesshowingearlysignsofimp