disagreeing with ourselves projection and hindsight biases

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1、DisagreeingwithOurselves:ProjectionandHindsightBiases11OnMarch19,2003,PresidentGeorgeW.BushannouncedthattheUnitedStateswasinvadingIraq.ThisfollowedmonthsofprotractedargumentstotheAmericanpeopleandtotheworldthatIraqhadachemicalandbiologicalweaponsprogramthatwasinviolat

2、ionoftheir1991cease-fireagreementwiththeUnitedStates.Iraqhadcommittedseveralotherblatantviolationsofthecease-fireagreement,includingfiringonU.S.airmen.Nonetheless,theBushadministrationhadsetasthecenterpieceofitsargumentforinvasiontheexistenceofathrivingchemicalandbiologi

3、calweaponsprogramthatpresentedathreattotheregion.PerhapsthemostmemorableoftheseargumentswasgivenbytheU.S.SecretaryofStateColinPowelltotheU.N.SecurityCouncilonFebruary5,2003.Herehepresentedsatellitephotosofsupposedmobilechemicalweaponsfactoriesandbunkersforstorageofche

4、micalweapons,andhepresentedotherintelligencethatappearedtoprovidesolidevidencethatIraqwasbuildingthecapabilitytothreatenstabilityintheMiddleEast.AtonepointheplayedtapesofIraqimilitarycommunicationsinwhichtheorderisgivento“removetheexpression‘nerveagent’whereveritcomes

5、upinwirelesscommunications”justbeforeaU.N.inspectionteamarrived.TheU.S.HouseofRepresentatives,severaloftheleadingnationsintheworld,andtheUnitedNationseventuallytooktheintelligenceargumentassufficienttowarrantmilitaryaction.WhentheUnitedStatesinvaded,however,nosuchweapo

6、nswereeverfound.Moreover,theUnitedStatesfoundnoevidencetosuggestthatanysuchweaponshadeverbeenthere.Soonafteritbecameclearthatnochemicalorbiologicalweaponswouldbefound,hundredsofblogsandmuchpoliticalcommentaryclaimed,infact,thattheintelligencebeforethewarconclusivelysh

7、owedthattheydidnotexist.Butifitwerereallysoeasytoseethroughthecasethatwasmadeatthetime,howcouldsomanyhavebeensoblind?AtonepointbeforeinvasionthedirectoroftheCentralIntelligenceAgencyhadcalledthecasea“slam-dunk.”Howcouldhehavebeensocertainifthecasewasasweakasmanyclaimi

8、twas?Ourcircumstancesofteninfluenceourjudgment.Considerthepurchaseofapooltable.Thosewithoutsuchamenitiesintheirhomesmightvisi