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1、11Outlook11.1INTRODUCTIONTheoutlookformezzaninereadsabitlikethegood,thebadandtheuglyofthefinancialmar-ketsandeverythingthathashappenedsince2008.Itisfairtosaythat,ingeneralterms,theoutlookformezzanineisprettygoodanno2013andgoingforward.Afewelementshav
2、econtributedtothat,includingthefactthatsince2008,andespeciallynowthatitisclearhowthefinalformatofBaselIIIwilllook,financialinstitutionsarerepositioningtheirloanportfolios,therebyoftenoverweightingsovereignbondsoveroperationalloans.1Forriskyloans,ahig
3、herlevelofcapitalwillhavetobeheldatthebank,andthereforecannotbedeployedinitsefforttomaximizeitsownROEandshareholdervalue.Itsretractionfromthemarkethasleftavoidwhichcanonlybefilledwitheitherequityormezzaninecapital,theformerofwhichisoftenunavailablefo
4、r(smaller)SMEs.Ascashflowshavebecomemorevolatilegiventheprotractedperiodofvolatilityinthemarket,cashflowvisibilityhassignificantlyreduced,somethingcreditanalystsarestilllearningtocopewith.Secondly,thefinancialrepression,arrangedbycentralbanksintheaft
5、ermathofthefirstpartofthefinancialcrisis,whichinvestorshaveexperiencedgloballynotonlyledtoextreme-lylowyieldlevelsonT-bondsandotheracclaimedrisk-lessassets,butalsopushedsavvyinvestorsinrelativelyrisk-elevatedfixed-incomeproducts(aswellashigheryieldin
6、gsukuks(i.e.,bondlook-alikeIslamicproducts)likeleveragedandhigh-yieldloansandbondsasadirectalternativetoequityallocations.Also,thelowerinterestratelevelshavepushedupdemandforrefinancingactivitiesbycorporateandsovereignsalike.Thirdly,manyinvestorshave
7、shiftedgearingafterbeingconfrontedwithasignificantJ-curveintheaftermathofthecrisisontheirPEinvestments,andratherthanwaitingforre-turns,theyre-allocatedfutureallocationstomezzanine,oftenprovidingsimilarreturnscom-paredtoPE(atleastjudgingbytheindustry’
8、saveragePEperformance).Finally,theemergingequitygap(partlydrivenbytheabsolutereluctancebyretailinves-torstoinvestinthestockmarketanylonger,andthefactthatthereisverylittleofanequitycultureinemergingmarketstofundpensionplans)intheworldhasledandwilllead
