couret & venter, class freq. vecs

couret & venter, class freq. vecs

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1、2014-CAS8§22Couret&Venter,ClassFreq.VectorsHCM5/13/14,Page1308Section22,Couret&Venter,ClassFrequencyVectors100010011002Onecanestimateexcessratiosbasedonwhichhazardgroupaclassisin.CouretandVentergetabetterestimateofexcessratiosbyalsousingdatafromtheclassinordertogetabetterestimateofthefrequencyofser

2、iousclaims.InWorkersCompensationInsurance,seriousclaimsarerelativelyinfrequent,butrepresentasignificantpercentageofthetotalcost.Thuswhileitwouldbevaluabletobeabletoestimatetheexpectedfuturefrequencyofseriousclaimsbyclass,itisdifficult,particularlyforsmallerclasses.1003Seriousclaimscontributeaneveng

3、reaterpercentageofthelossesexcessofalargedeductible;thelargerthedeductible,themoresignificantthecontributionoftheseriousclaims.Thusthefrequencyofseriousclaimsisimportantforpricinglargedeductiblesandexcesspolicies.Onecanuseexcessratiosbyhazardgroupandstate.TheseunderlietheExcessLossFactorspublishedb

4、yRatingBureaus.However,theexpectedfrequencyofseriousclaimsvariesbetweentheclasseswithinahazardgroup,andthussodotheexcessratios.Thusoneshouldbeabletogetasomewhatbetterestimateoftheexcessratioforagiveninsuredifoneconsidershowthefrequencyofseriousclaimsvariesbyclasswithinahazardgroup.Thenumberofmorese

5、riousclaimsbyclassiscorrelatedwiththenumberofTemporaryTotalclaims.Therefore,onecanusecredibilityandthenumberofTemporaryTotalclaimsforaclasstogetabetterestimateoftheexpectedfuturenumberofseriousclaimsforthatclass.Oneadjuststheestimatefromthehazardgrouptotheextentthedataforaclassiscredible.1000“Using

6、Multi-DimensionalCredibilitytoEstimateClassFrequencyVectorsinWorkersCompensation,”byJoseCouretandGaryVenter,ASTINBulletin,Vol.38,No.1,May2008,pp.72-85.CASLearningObjectiveA2.1001Addedtothesyllabusforthe2011exam.1002BeingintheASTINBulletin,thispaperhasadifferentstylethanyoumaybeusedto.Itspendsalotof

7、timereviewingWorkersCompensationInsuranceintheUnitedStatesforthebenefitofactuariesinothercountries.Itspendsalotoftimediscussinggeneraltheoryandthemotivationsforwhattheydid.Itspendsnotimegivingspecificnumeri

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