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ID:7266535
大小:354.82 KB
页数:18页
时间:2018-02-09
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1、P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc13JWBT347/MckinseyJune8,201013:42PrinterName:Hamilton13CalculatingandInterpretingResultsNowthatthevaluationmodeliscomplete,wearereadytoputittowork.Startbytestingthevalidityofthemodel.Evenacarefullyplannedmodelcanhavemechanicalerrorsorerrorsineconomiclogic.Tohelpyoua
2、voidthis,wepresentasetofsystematicchecksandothertricksofthetradethattesttherobustnessofthemodel.Duringthisverification,alsoensurethatkeyratiosareconsistentwiththeeconomicsoftheindustry.Onceyouarecomfortablethatthemodelworks,learntheinsandoutsofyourvaluationbychangingeachforecastinput
3、oneatatime.Examinehoweachpartofyourmodelchanges,anddeterminewhichinputshavethelargesteffectonthecompany’svaluationandwhichhavelittleornoimpact.Sinceforecastinputsarelikelytochangeinconcert,buildasensitivityanalysisthattestsmultiplechangesatatime.Usethisanalysistoprioritizestrategica
4、ctions.Next,todeepentheunderstandingofferedbyyourvaluation,usescenarioanalysis.Startbydeterminingthekeyuncertaintiesthataffectthecompany’sfuture,andusetheseuncertaintiestoconstructmultipleforecasts.Uncertaintycanbeassimpleaswhetheraparticularproductlaunchwillbesuccessful,orascomplex
5、aswhichtechnologywilldominatethemarket.Constructacomprehensiveforecastconsistentwitheachscenario,andweighttheresultingequityvaluationsbytheirprobabilityofoccurring.Scenarioanalysiswillnotonlyguideyourvaluationrange,butalsoinformyourthinkingaboutstrategicactionsandresourceallocationu
6、nderalternativesituations.Finally,weofferamajorcaveat:foramultibusinesscompany,asum-of-the-partsvaluationisoftentheonlywaytoestimateacompany’svalueaccurately.Bythiswemeanvaluingthebusinessunitsseparatelyandag-gregatingtheirvaluetoarriveatthecompany’svalue.Thereasonforusing295P1:OTA/
7、XYZP2:ABCc13JWBT347/MckinseyJune8,201013:42PrinterName:Hamilton296CALCULATINGANDINTERPRETINGRESULTSthismethodisthatbusinessunitsoftenhavedifferentfinancialprospects.Averagingacrosstheunitsisnotmeaningfulandwillnotprovideusefulcom-parisons.Weclosethischapterwithadiscussiononhowtovalue
8、acompanybyparts.VER
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