温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的最新进展

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1、中国农业科学2008,41(6):1700-1707ScientiaAgriculturaSinicadoi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2008.06.017温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的最新进展2,11,2林而达，刘颖杰12（首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院，北京100037；中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/农业部农业环境与气候变化重点实验室，北京100081）摘要：IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）在第25次会议上决定，本身不再开发情景，而由专业的研究团队承担起未来第五次评估报告（AR5）所需要的开发情景任务，同时建议新情

2、景用典型浓度路径RCPs来表示，以加速综合情景的开发进程，使气候模型同时能模拟排放情景。本文对此进行了介绍，并建议发展中国家和经济转轨国家更多的参与到新情景和新模型的开发中来，以推进农业气候变化影响评估、支持温室气体排放总量和排放权分配谈判的科学研究。关键词：新情景；RCPs；气候变化影响AdvanceinNewScenariosofGreenhouseGasEmissionandClimateChange2,11,2LINEr-da,LIUYing-jie12(CollegeofResourceEnvironmentandTourism,CapitalNorma

3、lUniversity,Beijing100037;InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture,ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences/KeyLaboratoryofAgro-EnvironmentandClimateChange,MinistryofAgriculture,Beijing100081)Abstract:Inpartbecauseofthegrowingnumberofscenariosdevelopedwithintheprofessi

4、onalresearchcommunity,theIPCCdecidedduringits25thsession(April2006)thattheresearchcommunitywouldundertakedevelopmentofscenariosforassessmentinapossibleAR5,whiletheIPCC’srolewouldbelimitedtocatalyzingandassessingsuchwork.AndtheIPCCdecisionindicatesthatRCPs(RepresentativeConcentrationPa

5、thways)asstabilizationpathwaysinordertoemphasizethatwhiletheyarebasedonexistingscenariosintheliteraturethathaveunderlyingsocio-economicassumptionsandemissionsoutcomes,theyarebeingselectedonthebasisoftheiremissionspathwaysandassociatedconcentrationsofradiativelyactivegasesandaerosols,a

6、ndtheirprimarypurposeistoprovidetheseconcentrationpathwaystotheclimatemodelingcommunitytoproducenewclimatechangeprojections.TheRCPsshouldbe“compatiblewith”thefullrangeofemissionsscenariosinthepeerreviewedliterature.Inordertotakeintoaccounttheeffectsofemissionsofallgreenhousegasesandae

7、rosols,theRCPshavebeenselectedbasedprimarilyontheiremissionsandassociatedconcentrationoutcomes,measuredasthenetradiativeforcingofgreenhousegasesandaerosols.ThepapersuggestDC/EITtoactivelyattendthedevelopmentofnewmodelsandscenariosinordertoadvancescientificresearchandpoliticalnegotiate

8、ofgre