Lecture22ManagingRisk(公司金融讲义(北大,沈明高)培训讲学.ppt

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1、Lecture22ManagingRisk(公司金融讲义(北大,沈明高)InsuranceMostbusinessesfacethepossibilityofahazardthatcanbankruptthecompanyinaninstant.Theserisksareneitherfinancialorbusinessandcannotbediversified.Thecostandriskofalossduetoahazard,however,canbesharedbyotherswhosharethesamerisk.InsuranceExampleAnof

2、fshoreoilplatformisvaluedat$1billion.Expertmeteorologistreportsindicatethata1in10,000chanceexiststhattheplatformmaybedestroyedbyastormoverthecourseofthenextyear.?HowcanthecostofthishazardbesharedInsuranceExample-contAnoffshoreoilplatformisvaluedat$1billion.Expertmeteorologistreportsind

3、icatethata1in10,000chanceexiststhattheplatformmaybedestroyedbyastormoverthecourseofthenextyear.?HowcanthecostofthishazardbesharedAnswerAlargenumberofcompanieswithsimilarriskscaneachcontributepayintoafundthatissetasidetopaythecostshouldamemberofthisrisksharinggroupexperiencethe1in10,000

4、loss.Theother9,999firmsmaynotexperiencealoss,butalsoavoidedtheriskofnotbeingcompensatedshouldalosshaveoccurred.InsuranceExample-contAnoffshoreoilplatformisvaluedat$1billion.Expertmeteorologistreportsindicatethata1in10,000chanceexiststhattheplatformmaybedestroyedbyastormoverthecourseoft

5、henextyear.?Whatwouldthecosttoeachgroupmemberbeforthisprotection.AnswerInsuranceWhywouldaninsurancecompanynotofferapolicyonthisoilplatformfor$100,000?AdministrativecostsAdverseselectionMoralhazardInsuranceThelossofanoilplatformbyastormmaybe1in10,000.Therisk,however,islargerforaninsuran

6、cecompanysincealltheplatformsinthesameareamaybeinsured,thusifastormdamagesoneinmaydamageallinthesamearea.TheresultisamuchlargerrisktotheinsurerCatastropheBonds-(CATBonds)AllowinsurerstotransfertheirrisktobondholdersbysellingbondswhosecashflowpaymentsdependonthelevelofinsurablelossesNOT

7、occurring.HedgingBusinesshasriskBusinessRisk-variablecostsFinancialRisk-InterestratechangesGoal-EliminateriskHOW?Hedging&FuturesContractsHedgingEx-Kelloggproducescereal.Amajorcomponentandcostfactorissugar.Forecastedincome&salesvolumeissetbyusingafixedsellingprice.Changesincostcanimpa