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1、西方不应误读中国的变化Beijing’smotivesareoftenjustpragmatic作者：北京大学中国经济研究中心主任姚洋为英国《金融时报》撰稿2011年02月11日05:09AM China’seconomicascentwasoncewelcomedinthewest.Sincethefinancialcrisis,however,Chinaisincreasinglyviewedaspursuingadomesticpolicyofgovernmentdominationandaninternationalpolicydrivenby
2、beggar-thy-neighbourmercantilism.Thereisevidencetosupportthesefearsbuttheydonotadduptoaconsciousdecisiontoembarkonamoreaggressivemodel.AndifthewestmisinterpretsChinesechanges,itwillonlymakemattersworse.ItistruethatChina’seconomyismovinginastatistdirection.Recoveryfromthecrisiswa
3、shelpedwithalargestimulus.Localspendingaddedtothis,leadingtolocalgovernment-backeddebtsofcloseto$1,000bn.Changesinindustrialpolicycancauseconcerntoo:stateplanstoboosttechnologicaldevelopmentupto2020haveraisedworriesamongwesterncompaniesthatgovernmentsupportwillgiveChinesegroupsa
4、nunfairadvantage.ChinahasalsoyettojointheWorldTradeOrganisation’sgovernmentprocurementagreement,whichguaranteesequalaccessforforeignanddomesticcompanies.中国的经济上行曾经受到西方的欢迎。然而，自金融危机以来，越来越多的西方人认为，中国推行的是由政府主导的国内政策和以邻为壑的重商主义国际政策。这些担忧可以找到证据支持，但这并不等于说，中国是有意识地决定采取一种更为激进的模式。而如果西方误读了中国的变化，
5、只会让事情变得更糟。China’sinternationalpolicyringsevenlouderalarms.Itsunwillingnesstoallowtherenminbitoappreciateiswellknown,asisthepurchaseofoilfields,minesandphysicalandfinancialassetsaroundtheworldbystate-backedcompanies.Chinainvested$59bnabroadin2010.Takentogether,thesemoveslooklikea
6、dramaticchangeinpolicy.Yettheyarebetterviewedastheresultofagovernmentmakingdifficultchoicesundergrowingpoliticalconstraints,ratherthantheproductofacoherent,newlyaggressivestrategy.Thecurrentdomesticinvestmentdrive,likethataftertheAsianfinancialcrisisin1997,ismorecyclicalthanperm
7、anent.Itsnewindustrialpolicies,likemanypreviousones,arelikelytohavelittleeffectoninvestmentpatterns:theindustrialsectorisdominatedbyprivatecompanies,withstateenterprisesaccountingforlessthan30percentofvalueadded.Internationally,China’sinsistenceonastablerenminbiispartofawiderpol
8、icydesignedtoensurestrongemploymentandsocialsta
